Democracy Dies in Darkness

The Weather Service prepares to launch prediction model that many forecasters don’t trust

Analysis by
Capital weather gang editor
February 14, 2019 at 12:13 p.m. EST
On Dec. 4, the FV3 model from the National Weather Service predicted a major snowstorm for Washington five days later. The storm missed the city. It is slated to become the Weather Service's flagship model in March. (TropicalTidBits.com)

In a month, the National Weather Service plans to launch its “next generation” weather prediction model with the aim of “better, more timely forecasts.” But many meteorologists familiar with the model fear it is unreliable.

The introduction of a model that forecasters lack confidence in matters, considering the enormous impact that weather has on the economy, valued at around $485 billion annually.