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BRUSSELS — An easy prediction for 2024? We will be talking a lot about migration.

After a pandemic-era lull, the issue roared back to the forefront this year as Western leaders faced pressure from the right to adopt ever-stricter measures.

In the final days of the year, the European Union <a href="https://apnews.com/article/migration-asylum-eu-pact-reform-4c7ff7d75f728593b7708150201693e0" target=_blank>reached a landmark deal</a> to overhaul its migration policy, and, in France, an immigration bill pushed President Emmanuel Macron to a <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-faces-political-crisis-after-showdown-on-immigration/" target=_blank>crisis point</a>.

Anti-migrant sentiment has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/25/europe-far-right-netherlands-election/" target=_blank>propelled the far right</a> to victories in bastions of social liberalism including the Netherlands and shaped debate from Germany to Italy and Britain. In 2024, it will be a driving force in elections in Europe — and in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/12/11/immigration-reform-biden-congress/" target=_blank>the United States</a>.

“In a big election year — in the U.S., the E.U. and the U.K. — migration is shaping up to be a big issue,” said Cambridge University professor Catherine Barnard, who specializes in European politics.

Although Europe moved swiftly to welcome millions of mostly White, Christian refugees from Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 invasion, European countries now seem focused on keeping others out.

Dutch election shows far right rising and reshaping Europe

European countries have struggled for years to find common ground on migration policy, but the increase in arrivals over the past year has fed the politicization of migration policy and elevated the importance of the issue in capitals.

During the first 11 months of 2023, the continent saw a 17 percent jump in irregular arrivals compared with the same period a year earlier. The more than 355,000 arrivals amounted to the highest number since 2016, when the region experienced a historic influx led by refugees fleeing the Syrian civil war.

As the right and far right seized on the issue, E.U. officials faced increasing pressure for the bloc to find a common approach.

The deal, which still must be formally ratified, aims, among its objectives, to share the costs associated with new arrivals more evenly among member states, to stem new arrivals and to make it possible to deport migrants more quickly.

Olivier Hoslet

Top European officials touted the agreement as a win for Europe and those trying desperately — and often dangerously — to reach its shores.

“It means that Europeans will decide who comes to the E.U. and who can stay, not the smugglers. It means protecting those in need,” said Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission.

But human rights groups condemned the new measures, saying they undermine critical protections for asylum seekers and will put newcomers at greater risk.

“This agreement will set back European asylum law for decades to come,” Amnesty International said in a <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/12/eu-migration-pact-agreement-will-lead-to-a-surge-in-suffering/" target=_blank>statement.</a> “Its likely outcome is a surge in suffering on every step of a person’s journey to seek asylum in the E.U.”

As crisis unfolds in Gaza, Europe talks about tightening borders

In many countries, including France and Germany, the migration debate is pushing centrist parties to the right as leaders try to allay concerns about migration and immigration.

This week, for instance, the French Parliament adopted a divisive bill that places tough rules on immigrants, such as making it harder for them to obtain benefits or for their children to become French citizens.

Christophe Ena

Macron’s centrist party agreed to tougher measures to win support from the French right. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Rally, hailed the bill as an “ideological victory” for her camp.

Migration is also dominating the political agenda in Germany, where asylum applications are up significantly and local governments are feeling the strain of caring for large numbers of newcomers.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has vowed to take a tougher line, faces growing pressure from the right. Support for the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) is on the rise, with the party expected to perform well in regional elections in 2024 and currently polling well nationally.

Even the continent’s conservative leaders are struggling with how to address the issue.

In Britain, immigration is likely to remain at the forefront of politics as the country heads into an election year. Like previous Conservative leaders, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is hoping to rally his base by taking a tough line.

In 2016, many Britons in favor of Brexit voted to leave the E.U. so that their country could “take back control” of its borders. But immigration to the U.K. is now at record high levels, prompting outrage among conservatives.

U.K. top court rejects plan to deport migrants to Rwanda, in blow to Sunak

On the campaign trail last year, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni pledged to solve the migrant crisis — with a naval blockade of North Africa if she had to. In office, she has found the problem much harder to overcome.

To move forward, Meloni has forged an alliance with Britain’s Sunak. After a meeting between them last weekend, the two announced an Italo-British effort to fund repatriations of migrants in Tunisia, both an origin and transit country for migrants heading to Europe on rickety boats.

Both countries have sought to solve their migration problems by literally offshoring the problem. Italy struck a deal with Albania to house up to 36,000 migrants a year, and Britain had planned to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda — until the U.K.’s top court rejected the plan. Sunak’s government is trying to revive it.

Mohamed Messara

Meloni also has taken the lead in seeking to forge a deal with President Kais Saied of Tunisia to increase patrols and prevent migrant crossings, despite widespread evidence that his racist statements have inspired attacks against sub-Saharan migrants in that country, prompting them to flee.

The racist roots of the rise in migration to Europe this year

But the deals have run into trouble. Saied has emerged as a mercurial partner, returning 60 million euros of E.U. funding this month, dismissing it as too meager. Meloni’s agreement with Albania has been suddenly blocked by that country’s Constitutional Court.

“For Meloni, immigration has been an utter failure,” said Nathalie Tocci, the director of the Rome-based Institute for International Affairs.

“Even if the Albania deal does go ahead, it’s little more than a PR stunt,” she said. “If you look at the number of arrivals, compared to the number of people who can be housed, it’s very clear it will be peanuts. It won’t make a real difference.”

<i>Beatriz Rios in Granada, Spain, and Kate Brady in Berlin contributed to this report.</i>

Overseas Press Club of America, Bob Considine Award, 2017

International China Journalists Association, General Excellence, 2016

International Human Rights Press Awards, Certificate of Merit, 2011, 2012

Columbia University, MS in journalism, 2007

University of Toronto, MA in international relations, 2006

Queen's University, BA in political science, 2005

Emily Rauhala is the Brussels bureau chief for The Washington Post, covering the European Union and NATO.

Emily Rauhala

Winner, National Press Foundation’s Innovative Storytelling Award

Winner, Cine Award

Finalist, Overseas Press Award 

Winner, Maryland-DC-Virginia Press Association Award

Knight Innovator in Residence at Florida International University

Florida International University, BA in communications

Anthony Faiola is Rome Bureau Chief for The Washington Post. Since joining the paper in 1994, he has served as bureau chief in Miami, Berlin, London, Tokyo, Buenos Aires and New York and additionally worked as roving correspondent at large. 

Anthony Faiola

Queen's University, BA in psychology 

London School of Economics, MSc in organizational psychology

Columbia University, MS in journalism 

Karla Adam is a London correspondent for The Washington Post, which she joined in 2006. She is a former president of the Association of American Correspondents in London.

Karla Adam

washpost

E.U. approves migration deal, showing rightward shift

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