Charts that illustrate the effects of climate change often share a distinct feature: that alarming, bright-red line.
Opinion Tired of feeling hopeless about climate change? Take a look at these charts.
September 6, 2023 at 3:55 p.m. EDT
Looking at charts such as these can feel distressing and disempowering. But, as Canadian science educator David Suzuki recently said, “Despair is a luxury we can’t afford any longer.”
The question is, how can people avoid hopelessness?
Christiana Figueres, the architect of the Paris climate accord, offers one solution. She calls it “stubborn optimism” — a dissatisfied, gritty, determined confidence that humanity can bring about needed change in the face of great challenges. It’s a necessary precursor to action, and adopting this attitude requires shifting focus from the past to the future.
Crucially, this doesn’t require ignoring reality or becoming complacent. Stubborn optimism calls for work toward solutions.
Remember: The red lines have resulted from past actions. But there are other charts, too, that show the positive effects that come from working to make human activity more sustainable.
These charts are equally dramatic, but their trends point toward hope.
Consider this one showing a rise in electric vehicle sales worldwide:
Electric vehicle sales
China
Europe
U.S.
Other
15 million
EVs sold
14 million EVs are expected to be sold in 2023, a 35% increase over last year.
10 million
In 2022, nearly
60% of all EVs were sold in China.
5 million
2017
2019
2021
2023
2023 sales are estimates based on data from the first
quarter of the year.
Source: International Energy Agency
Electric vehicle sales
China
Europe
U.S.
Other
15 million EVs sold
14 million EVs are expected to be sold in 2023, a 35% increase over last year.
10 million
In 2022, nearly
60% of all EVs were sold in China.
5 million
2017
2019
2021
2023
2023 sales are estimates based on data from the first quarter of the year.
Source: International Energy Agency
Electric vehicle sales
14 million EVs are expected to be sold in 2023, a 35% increase over last year.
15 million EVs sold
Other
U.S.
In 2022, nearly 60% of all EVs were sold in China.
Europe
10 million
China
5 million
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2023 sales are estimates based on data from the first quarter of the year.
Source: International Energy Agency
Electric vehicle sales
15 million EVs sold
14 million EVs are expected to be sold in 2023, a 35% increase over last year.
Other
U.S.
Europe
10 million
In 2022, nearly 60% of all EVs
were sold in China.
China
5 million
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2023 sales are estimates based on data from the first quarter of the year.
Source: International Energy Agency
In Norway, nearly all new cars are electric. In Europe, it’s almost 25 percent, and in China it’s a third.
This is progress. Cutting fossil fuel use is the most important way to combat further climate change, and EVs help — as long as the cars use clean power.
Here again, there are optimistic data. The world’s largest emitters of carbon have started rapidly moving away from coal and toward wind and solar power:
Electricity generation from wind,
solar and other renewable sources
China
1,200 TWh per year
1,000
China increased its renewable energy
by almost 400%
since 2015.
E.U.
800
600
U.S.
400
India
200
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: The Energy Institute’s 2023 Statistical Review
of World Energy
Electricity generation from wind, solar
and other renewable sources
China
1,200 TWh per year
1,000
China increased its renewable energy
by almost 400% since 2015.
E.U.
800
U.S.
600
400
India
200
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: The Energy Institute’s 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy
Electricity generation from wind, solar and other renewable sources
China
1,200 TWh per year
China increased its renewable energy by almost 400% since 2015.
1,000
E.U.
800
U.S.
600
400
India
200
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Source: The Energy Institute’s 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy
Electricity generation from wind, solar and other renewable sources
China
1,200 TWh per year
China increased its renewable energy by almost 400% since 2015.
1,000
E.U.
800
U.S.
600
400
India
200
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Source: The Energy Institute’s 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy
Albania, Iceland, Paraguay and Norway generate almost all their electricity from renewable sources. Europe uses clean power for about half its needs. Notably, most countries in the European Union are on track to meet their 2030 renewable energy targets early.
One more hopeful chart shows that, in some major economies, annual carbon dioxide emissions already peaked decades ago.
Yearly CO2 emissions
2005
6 billion tons
U.S.
5
1979
4
E.U.
Emissions from
28 E.U. countries peaked more than
four decades ago.
3
2
Emissions from the U.S. peaked in 2005 and have dropped 18% since then.
1
1960
1980
2000
2020
Emissions are from fossil fuels and industry. Those from
land change use are not included.
Source: Global Carbon Budget (2022)
Yearly CO2 emissions
2005
6 billion tons
U.S.
1979
5
4
E.U.
Emissions from
28 E.U. countries peaked more than
four decades ago.
3
2
Emissions from the U.S. peaked in 2005 and have dropped 18% since then.
1
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Emissions are from fossil fuels and industry. Those from land change use
are not included.
Source: Global Carbon Budget (2022)
Yearly CO2 emissions
2005
6 billion tons
U.S.
5
1979
4
E.U.
Emissions from
28 European Union countries peaked more than four decades ago.
3
Emissions from the United States peaked in 2005 and have dropped 18% since then.
2
1
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Emissions are from fossil fuels and industry. Those from land change use are not included.
Source: Global Carbon Budget (2022)
Yearly CO2 emissions
Emissions from the United States peaked in 2005 and have dropped 18% since then.
6 billion tons
U.S.
5
4
E.U.
3
Emissions from 28 European Union countries peaked in 1979, more than four decades ago.
2
1
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Emissions are from fossil fuels and industry. Those from land change use are not included.
Source: Global Carbon Budget (2022)
Clearly, effective action is possible.
The trouble is, the efforts made so far are not nearly enough. Global emissions overall are still on the rise.
Yearly CO2 emissions
35 billion tons
Global
In 2021, China emitted
31% of worldwide CO2 emissions. The U.S. contributed 13%.
30
25
20
15
10
U.S.
5
E.U.
0
1960
1980
2000
2020
Emissions are from fossil fuels and industry. Those from
land change use are not included.
Source: Global Carbon Budget (2022)
Yearly CO2 emissions
35 billion tons
Global
30
25
20
In 2021, China emitted
31% of worldwide CO2 emissions. The U.S. contributed 13%.
15
10
U.S.
5
E.U.
1960
1980
2000
2020
Emissions are from fossil fuels and industry. Those from land change use
are not included.
Source: Global Carbon Budget (2022)
Yearly CO2 emissions
35 billion tons
Global
30
25
20
In 2021, China emitted 31% of worldwide CO2 emissions. The U.S. contributed 13%.
15
10
U.S.
5
E.U.
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Emissions are from fossil fuels and industry. Those from land change use are not included.
Source: Global Carbon Budget (2022)
Yearly CO2 emissions
35 billion tons
Global
30
25
20
In 2021, China emitted 31% of worldwide CO2 emissions. The U.S. contributed 13%.
15
10
U.S.
5
E.U.
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Emissions are from fossil fuels and industry. Those from land change use are not included.
Source: Global Carbon Budget (2022)
Bending this red line in a more positive direction will take much more work. Stubborn optimism must be translated into further action.
And that might be uncomfortable. Adopting optimism — even in gritty, dissatisfied form — might feel like denying the seriousness of the climate crisis. Or it might seem incompatible with emotions such as anger, frustration or grief.
Personally, I worry that a hopeful outlook is a slippery slope to complacency. I struggle with my own competing convictions — a cynical view that those in power won’t act quickly enough and a counter-belief that optimism might be the most effective way to advance solutions.
But if this discomfort is allowed to get in the way of action, the red lines will only keep rising.
What comes next will be different for everyone, but one of the most important and effective actions is clear: electing leaders who will act quickly and decisively to lower emissions.
It works, as captured in one last hopeful chart: the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act.
Change in U.S. emissions from
2005 levels
0%
−10%
Projected
emissions
drop before
the law ...
−20%
−30%
... and
after.
−40%
2030 U.S. target:
50–52% below 2005
−50%
2005
2015
2025
2035
Data for 2025, 2030 and 2035 are an average across
models.
Source: “Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation
Reduction Act,” Science (Bistline, et al.)
Change in U.S. emissions from 2005 levels
0%
−10%
Projected
emissions drop
before the law ...
−20%
−30%
... and after.
−40%
2030 U.S. target:
50–52% below 2005
−50%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Data for 2025, 2030 and 2035 are an average across models.
Source: “Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act,”
Science (Bistline, et al.)
Change in U.S. emissions from 2005 levels
0%
Projected
emissions drop
before the law ...
−10%
−20%
... and after.
−30%
−40%
2030 U.S. target:
50–52% below 2005
−50%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Data for 2025, 2030 and 2035 are an average across models.
Source: “Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act,” Science (Bistline, et al.)
Change in U.S. emissions from 2005 levels
0%
−10%
−20%
Projected
emissions drop
before the law ...
−30%
... and after.
−40%
2030 U.S. target:
50–52% below 2005
−50%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Data for 2025, 2030 and 2035 are an average across models.
Source: “Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act,” Science (Bistline, et al.)
Passed by the Biden administration a year ago, the Inflation Reduction Act is the most significant piece of U.S. climate legislation to date. The law has shifted the trajectory of U.S. emissions toward a net-zero pathway — and moved the future a little farther away from an alarming red line.
