An El Niño that is predicted to develop in the coming months could trigger widespread extreme weather events, upending local economies, fish populations — and even your daily coffee fix.
“It seems that the negative influences of El Niño are exacerbated by long-term climate change, which is of concern for coffee farmers, and food security in general,” Aaron P. Davis, senior research leader of crops and global change at Britain’s Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, said in an email.
It’s still unclear exactly how El Niño will unfold. Some major coffee-producing locations could see suitable conditions for coffee growing, but others might experience the opposite, Davis said. “These impacts may vary within a single country,” he added.
Here’s what you need to know.
How could an El Niño affect coffee production?
The vast majority of the global coffee supply is made up of two varieties: arabica and robusta.
Arabica has long been a favorite of the coffee industry, but the bean is hypersensitive to temperature changes, prompting concerns for its future in a warming world. Robusta — so named for its robustness — has been increasingly put forth as one potential solution to help mitigate the effects of climate change on coffee.
An El Niño event, which could bring unusually hot and dry conditions to coffee regions, may affect yields of both types of beans, Christian Bunn, a scientist at the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, said in an email. A peer-reviewed study published in March noted that “substantial departures” from the optimal growing conditions for arabica and robusta “are taken as an indication that an area is either currently, or in the future under climate change, unsuitable for growing coffee.”
But other experts say this El Niño year could impact robusta crops more than arabica. “We have always been assuming that robusta is more robust, as the name says, and it will be more resistant to climate change,” said Chahan Yeretzian, head of the Coffee Excellence Center at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences. “But the situation that is coming this year could prove the opposite, that robusta will be more affected.”
An El Niño could affect regions of the world responsible for producing a significant amount of the global supply of robusta, such as Vietnam and Brazil, said John Baffes, a senior economist and commodities analyst with the World Bank. Vietnam, for instance, produces more than half of the world’s robusta supply.
There may be some hope, though. The March study found the weather phenomenon appeared to have less of an impact on southern Brazil, meaning the region could be critical in offsetting El Niño-related risks to global coffee supply. The country is the top producer of arabica in the world.
What does this mean for coffee lovers?
If El Niño severely reduces coffee yields and quality, consumers may end up paying higher prices, said Davis, though some of the increase might be absorbed by the coffee sector.
Robusta prices climbed to a 15-year peak last week, Reuters reported, citing “tight supply” and “worries about future production due to El Niño.”
This year’s weather disruption could spell trouble for the coffee market, which Baffes said is still recovering from a “major shock” associated with a recent drought in South America that damaged Brazil’s crop and sent the prices skyrocketing. Meanwhile, prices for food commodities more broadly have also been rising. The combined pressure from these factors may force coffee companies to increase prices, he said.
“My feeling is that it’s going to have an effect, but it’s unlikely that’s going to push prices above what we experienced in the first half of 2022,” he said.
Are there any solutions?
Adaptation practices to help increase the resilience of coffee crops include mulching, cover crops, irrigation, improved shade, contour planting and barrier crops, among others, Bunn said. While it’s worth it to invest in these strategies, he said, they need be implemented over a long period of time and likely can’t help coffee producers in an immediate crisis.
Meanwhile, experts say work is being done to advance improved types of coffee that are more drought and heat tolerant. Some efforts are also underway to create alternative coffees, including a cell-cultured variety.
“It is important to understand that coffee is increasingly becoming a high-risk investment,” Bunn said. “Independent of individual events, the entire sector is highly concerned about climate change.”
