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Ryan C. Hermens

LOUISVILLE — The great, surprising news is that a fairly progressive Democrat is thriving politically in one of America’s most conservative states. The unfortunate news is that his formula for success probably isn’t replicable for Democrats <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/presidential-candidates-2024/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">running for president</a>, in other red states or even here in Kentucky.

When Andy Beshear was elected governor of Kentucky in 2019, it looked like a fluke. Incumbent Republican Matt Bevin had annoyed just about everyone with his arrogant, autocratic style. Even then, Beshear <a href="https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=21&year=2019&f=0&off=5" target=_blank>won by just 0.4 percent</a>. It seemed likely that the state’s voters would quickly turn against the Democrat.

But that’s not at all what has happened. Beshear is <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-june-7-2023/" target=_blank>considered</a> <a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings" target=_blank>a slight favorite </a>in his reelection run this November because Kentucky’s otherwise very Republican-leaning voters really like him. <a href="https://www.cygn.al/poll-kentucky-governor-and-ag-dead-heat-biden-deeply-underwater/" target=_blank>Polls show</a> the governor’s <a href="https://andybeshear.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ppp-results.pdf" target=_blank>approval rating</a> at <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/15ziupY7y4QVJTVRlzyDOK9gDJE9_h94w/view" target=_blank>around 60 percent</a>, with more than one-third of Kentucky Republicans <a href="https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/governor-approval-ratings-july-2023" target=_blank>praising Beshear’s performance</a>.

At first glance, those numbers <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-every-senator-and-governor-ranks-according-to-popularity-above-replacement/" target="_blank">are almost unbelievable</a>. About <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/" target="_blank">55 percent</a> of Americans disapprove of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/candidates/joe-biden-2024/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">President Biden</a>, and he is even more unpopular (about <a href="https://andybeshear.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ppp-results.pdf" target="_blank">65 percent disapproval</a>) in Kentucky. No Democratic presidential candidate has won here <a href="https://www.270towin.com/states/Kentucky#google_vignette" target="_blank">since 1996</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/donald-trump/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">Donald Trump</a> carried Kentucky <a href="https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2020&amp;fips=21&amp;f=0&amp;off=0&amp;elect=0" target="_blank">by 26 points in 2020</a>, <a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker" target="_blank">his eighth-biggest margin in any state</a>. Kentucky’s legislature is <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Kentucky_State_Senate" target="_blank">totally dominated</a> <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Kentucky_House_of_Representatives" target="_blank">by Republicans</a>; Beshear and Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman, who ran as a joint ticket, are the only Democrats in <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Kentucky_state_executive_offices" target="_blank">statewide elected offices</a>.

And it’s not just that Beshear is a Democrat — he’s a firmly pro-abortion-rights, pro-LGBTQ+, pro-union, <a href="https://www.wkyufm.org/politics/2020-06-08/beshear-outlines-plan-to-improve-racial-inequities-achieve-100-health-coverage-for-black-residents" target=_blank>pro-racial-equity</a> one. Beshear is not in the mold of Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), a red-state Democrat who constantly emphasizes his disagreements with the party. The governor’s policy stances are virtually indistinguishable from most Democratic officials across the country. Beshear almost never criticizes the president or others in the party.

Nor does he do much to appease conservative voters. This year, when Kentucky Republicans passed an anti-transgender-rights bill that was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/03/17/kentucky-bill-gender-affirmingcare-antitransgender/" target="_blank">even more restrictive than those passed in most other states</a>, it would have been perfectly logical, in terms of electoral politics, for Beshear to sign it. It was going to become law no matter what, because Republicans here have a large enough majority to override most of Beshear’s vetoes. But Beshear <a href="https://www.lpm.org/news/2023-03-24/gov-beshear-vetoes-ky-legislatures-anti-transgender-bill-that-bans-gender-affirming-medical-care" target="_blank">vetoed it anyway</a>, and there is little sign it has hurt him politically.

You might be thinking: If Beshear successfully navigated politics in Kentucky, should Biden and every other Democrat in America book a flight to Louisville and drive an hour to the governor’s mansion in Frankfort to ask him for advice? Should Beshear be at the top of the party’s list of potential 2028 candidates?

Alas, it’s complicated. Beshear’s popularity is fairly context-dependent. Most important, he’s an incumbent governor. Republican or Democrat, liberal or conservative, <a href="https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/governor-approval-ratings-july-2023" target=_blank>governors are popular</a> right now. The average governor has a 57 percent approval rating, compared with 34 percent disapproval, according to Morning Consult. In comparison, the average senator is at 50 percent approval and 35 percent disapproval.

Most governors and senators are Republicans in red states or Democrats in blue ones, but the popularity of governors is not just about partisan alignment. Americans seem to evaluate governors in less of a red/blue manner than they do other politicians. <a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-dwindling-crossover-governorships/" target="_blank">Nine of the 50 governors</a> aren’t from the party their state backed in the presidential election, compared with only five of the 100 senators. Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, won reelection in red Kansas last fall. <a href="https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/governor-approval-ratings-july-2023" target="_blank">The nation’s five most popular governors</a> include Beshear and two Republicans in blue states: Vermont’s Phil Scott and New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu.

It probably helps Beshear that he is also a fairly powerless governor. Because Kentucky’s legislature is so Republican, progressive policies that might really irritate conservative voters (such as forgiving student loans) aren’t enacted here.

Also, there’s Dad. Steve Beshear, Andy’s father, was a fairly popular governor, winning elections in 2007 and 2011 even as the state otherwise swung right. I suspect the Beshear name still carries weight with many Kentucky voters.

So, much of what’s going right for Andy Beshear has little to do with the actions of Andy Beshear. But let me give the governor some credit: First, he is either very sincere, kind and nice — or fakes all of that extremely well. Beshear’s daily news conferences during the height of the covid-19 pandemic made him a popular, unifying figure. Beshear has <a href="https://www.wvxu.org/politics/2021-12-15/kentucky-governor-andy-beshear-dawson-springs-tornado" target=_blank>kept up that image through his compassionate, hands-on manner </a>amid tornadoes, floods, mass shootings and other crises in the state.

Second, Beshear seems to understand voters in a way that many other Democratic politicians in purple and red states don’t. Those politicians act as though voters follow politics closely and have clear ideological positions, so every time a Democratic official <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/rep-tim-ryan-breaks-from-biden-on-student-debt-relief-plan/" target=_blank>takes a conservative stance</a>, he automatically gains more support from Republican voters. But in reality, voters often decide they just like certain politicians — and will forgive them for positions that don’t totally line up with theirs. So Beshear uses his popular brand to govern in a more liberal manner than one would expect from a Kentucky politician, as opposed to the (usually unsuccessful) red-state Democrat approach of trying to build a popular brand by taking lots of conservative stands.

“I don’t make decisions based on votes or lack of votes,” Beshear told me when I interviewed him this week. “I governed during the pandemic, and we made every decision to save lives. And if that was going to cost me my reelection, so be it.” I strongly suspect Beshear, like every other politician, does usually consider electoral politics in his policy decisions, but his low number of he-did-that-only-for-electoral-reasons moves allows him to make that comment with a straight face.

When I asked Beshear why he is so popular and whether Democrats in other states could learn from him, he demurred on the second question. In explaining his popularity, the governor at first emphasized the state’s strong economy, reeling off a long list of manufacturing and infrastructure projects that have started since he took office. (I’m skeptical of this explanation, because the strong economy nationally hasn’t made Biden popular.) Beshear then shifted to focus on the personal dimension I noted earlier.

“I don’t talk at people. I talk to people,” he said. “That’s being there when the worst of the worst has happened and asking them if they’re all right and how I can help or talking to anybody about the issues that may impact all parents and not chasing whatever the issue of the day in Washington, D.C. is.”

He added: “I’m there in the toughest of times.”

Even with his strong approval ratings, Kentucky is so Republican-leaning that there is no guarantee Beshear will win in November. It’s possible many conservative voters here keep telling pollsters they approve of Beshear but will still vote for his Republican opponent, state Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

If Beshear does win in November, he will have a great résumé for a presidential campaign four years from now: twice-elected in a very red state but without taking conservative stands that would annoy key parts of the Democratic Party base. I think he could be a great nominee and president. (“Let’s focus on this one first,” Beshear told a local Democrat at an event here, after she came up to him and said, “You need to run for president.”)

But I’m not sure whether Beshear would be a better presidential candidate than Democrats who have won in purple states, such as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and others who have run up big margins in blue states; or Vice President Harris and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who now have years of experience in high-pressure national political situations. Being a relatively powerless governor of a small state (<a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/KY/PST045222" target=_blank>4.5 million</a>) where your dad was a popular governor isn’t analogous to running a presidential campaign.

Beshear probably could not win a U.S. Senate race in Kentucky, because voters tend to view federal races more in terms of partisan politics. Even at the state level, the Democrats running for attorney general and other statewide positions aren’t expected to win — despite having the popular governor at the top of the ballot. Nor is Coleman considered a shoo-in to win Kentucky’s governorship in 2027, when Beshear can’t run again because of term limits.

But for me, a left-leaning person living in Louisville, that other Democrats might not be able to emulate Beshear is a secondary concern. Most red states have a Republican legislature that meets a few months each year and passes terrible policies and also a Republican governor who uses his executive powers all year long to antagonize left-leaning cities and liberals. With Andy Beshear as governor, Kentucky has only the first problem. I’ll be thrilled if he’s in office for four more years.

Perry Bacon Jr. is a Washington Post columnist. Before joining The Post, Perry had stints as a government and elections writer for Time magazine, The Post's national desk, theGrio and FiveThirtyEight. He has also been been an on-air analyst at MSNBC and a fellow at New America. He grew up in Louisville and lives there now. perry.bacon@washpost.com

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