Updated forecast: After record-setting rainfall, stormy weather exits with cooler air incoming

2020 has now seen the most super rainy days on record in Washington

In the rain’s wake, temperatures have begun to slowly fall back (from the mid-60s closer to 60 degrees) and will drop more quickly tonight.

Scroll down below for the detailed forecast for the remainder of the week and for earlier storm updates.

Original forecast from 5 a.m.

Today’s daily digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

4/10: A parting pulse of warmth, but subpar with showers, storms and gusty winds.

Express forecast

• Today: Periodic showers, gusty winds. Highs: 64 to 68.
• Tonight: Mostly cloudy, colder. Lows: 37 to 43.
• Tomorrow: Early shower or flurry? Partly sunny, blustery. Highs: 45 to 49.

Forecast in detail

A strong storm system cuts to our west today, producing periodic showers, some heavy, and gusty winds. Colder air pours into the region in the storm’s wake, dropping temperatures sharply by Tuesday. The middle of the week brings quieter weather before our next chance of rain Friday or Saturday.

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Today (Monday): Rain, heavy at times, is likely in the early-morning hours before a pause, when temperatures spike upward. By the late-morning and early-afternoon hours, we’re into the 60s before a round of scattered showers and storms between about noon and 3 p.m. A few of them could be intense with gusty winds, especially along and east of Interstate 95. An isolated tornado is not even out of the question. By late afternoon, we start drying out, but winds are gusty out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Skies are variably cloudy as colder air blows into the region. Toward dawn, we can’t totally rule out a shower or, in our colder areas, even a snow flurry. Lows range from the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds are out of the west at about 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Tuesday): A shower or snow flurry (in our colder areas) isn’t out of the question in the morning before skies become partly sunny. It’s a blustery day with highs only in the mid- to upper 40s, with winds from the west at 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy and cold. Lows range from near 30 in our colder spots to the low to mid-30s downtown. Winds are from the west at 5 to 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

A look ahead

Sunny skies Wednesday and Thursday and seasonably chilly weather for early December. Highs on Wednesday are in the breezy mid- to upper 40s, before moderating to the low 50s on Thursday when winds ease a bit. Clear and cold Wednesday night with lows in the 20s to near 30, while clouds increase Thursday night with lows in the 30s to near 40. Confidence: Medium-High

Friday and/or Saturday likely bring on-and-off showers, although their timing is uncertain. If the approaching storm system arrives quickly (per the American forecast model), Friday would be the wetter day, whereas if it takes its time (per the European forecast model), the bulk of any rain could hold off until Saturday. Highs are in the low 50s, with lows mostly in the 40s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Lingering showers can’t be ruled out on Sunday, but we should start to dry out with breezy conditions and highs in the low 50s. Confidence: Medium

Read more about Capital Weather Gang’s confidence rating.

Expired storm updates

2:45 p.m. — Tornado watch canceled for Charles, Prince George’s and Baltimore counties; remains in effect to the east.

2:30 p.m. — Worst weather ends west of Interstate 95, while gusty showers remain possible to the east for a couple more hours.

Gusty showers and thunderstorms which swept through our eastern suburbs over the last 90 minutes are rapidly exiting over the Chesapeake Bay. However, some more downpours over Virginia’s Northern Neck are pointed at Southern Maryland and could brush areas east of the Beltway over the next couple of hours. A tornado watch remains in effect east of the District though the most intense showers and storms have likely already passed.

To the west, while a passing shower and brief downpour is still possible through 5 p.m., the threat of severe weather is ending. For most areas, it should be dry and breezy with temperatures in the 60s.

1:40 p.m. — Severe thunderstorm warning in Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties until 2:15 p.m.

Radar shows the most intense storm activity from roughly Bowie to Upper Marlboro, where very heavy rain is falling and radar indicates very strong winds. This activity is racing to the northeast toward central and northern Anne Arundel counties at around 55 mph.

1:15 p.m. — Tornado watch issued for areas east of the District through early evening

One or two lines of vigorous showers passing through the region this afternoon could spawn an isolated tornado in our eastern suburbs, where a tornado watch has been issued through 7 p.m.

The tornado watch includes Charles, Prince George’s, Anne Arundel, and Baltimore counties and locations to the east, including the entire Delmarva Peninsula.

West of the Chesapeake Bay to Interstate 95, any gusty showers that might spawn a tornado would likely occur through around 4 p.m., and the risk should diminish after that. The possibility may last into the early evening over the Delmarva Peninsula.

A tornado watch means conditions are conducive to the possible development of tornadoes, but not guaranteed.

If a tornado warning is issued for your location, it means a tornado has been indicated by radar or seen by a storm spotter and you should seek shelter immediately in the lowest floor of a strong building in an interior room.

Any tornadoes that form will likely do so suddenly and will likely be short-lived; monitor storm warnings and stay weather-aware through late this afternoon.

12:15 p.m. — Some areas top two inches of rain after latest drenching. Scattered downpours, gusty winds possible thru mid-afternoon.

The late-morning wave of rain unleashed some torrential downpours, pushing rainfall totals over two inches in some areas, including Washington, which has set a new rainfall record for Nov. 30. While we’ve now seen the bulk of the rain from this event, it’s not entirely over.

Especially for locations along and east of Interstate 95, another line or two of gusty showers with heavy downpours may come through during the next few hours. There’s an outside chance of a damaging wind gust or two, mainly east of Interstate 95, and even a brief tornado. However, the risk of severe weather is highest over the Delmarva Peninsula.

By late afternoon, most of the rain should have ended.

9:45 a.m. — After pause another batch of moderate to heavy rain approaches

For the past one to two hours, rain has eased or stopped, but another slug is approaching the Beltway from the southwest. This rain should take an hour or two to pass and is likely to be moderate to heavy at times, especially along and west of Interstate 95.

So far, around an inch of rain has fallen throughout the region and this next batch could add another 0.5 inches or so.

After this latest round of rain, we should see yet another pause before a possible closing line of showers and storms in the mid-afternoon hours. This fast-moving and short-lived line of showers and storms may mostly affect our eastern areas (from I-95 east) if it develops but could contain some gusty winds and heavy downpours with the outside risk of an isolated tornado. The zone in yellow on the map below has the highest chance of a gusty storm. We’ll update on this possibility around midday.