In the battle for the Senate majority, some races are easier to confidently predict than others.
But every election, there are surprise outcomes, and this year, every race counts. Democrats need to win the White House so they have a vice president who can cast a tie-breaking vote, and then, given the likely loss in Alabama, gain three more seats to take over the majority. They have a path to do it but not much margin for error.
The true surprises are ones we won’t have even thought about putting on a list like the one below. But some things we know are in the realm of possibility would still be pretty shocking if they actually happen. Those include outcomes like:
1. A Democrat unseats Lindsey Graham
That this race is even competitive is already the surprise of 2020. Several polls in September and October showed the race virtually tied between Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R), a close ally of President Trump, with his Democratic challenger, Jaime Harrison.
Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic is resonating here, as some Trump supporters peel away from Graham. And Harrison annihilated a nationwide Senate fundraising record to be able to cover the airwaves with his personal story and draw in suburban voters.
But are there enough people willing to vote for a Democrat in South Carolina? A more recent, mid-October New York Times/Siena College poll had Graham at 46 percent and Harrison at 40 percent.
2. A double January runoff in Georgia
There are two Georgia Senate races this year: One is more traditional, as Sen. David Perdue (R) tries to get reelected.
The second is a special election with several candidates, most prominently Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), Rep. Douglas A. Collins (R) and Democrat Raphael Warnock.
Georgia is an increasingly competitive state for Democrats; polls show the presidential race roughly tied there. As a result, Perdue appears tied with his Democratic challenger, Jon Ossoff, most recently in a mid-October New York Times/Siena College poll, with both at 43 percent. But Georgia election rules require a candidate to get to 50 percent to win outright, which could mean the two go to a runoff in January, when the winner takes all.
The special election is more muddled and thus will most likely go to a January runoff. But recently, the top Democrat in the race, Warnock, is jumping ahead in the polls over the two Republicans, which is remarkable for a previously little-known pastor who has never run for office before. The same NYT/Siena poll has him leading the field at 32 percent, with Loeffler at 23 percent and Collins at 17 percent.
Democrats haven’t traditionally performed well in runoffs in Georgia, and in any January race, Trump and Biden won’t be on the ballot to help drive turnout among Democrats. In the special election runoff, Republican support will be more consolidated with just one top candidate.
Still, signs look good for Democrats to keep Republicans from winning these Senate seats on the first try. One or both of these races could decide which party wins the Senate majority.
3. Republicans unseat a Democrat in Michigan
Besides Alabama, Republicans’ only other pickup opportunity this year is in Michigan.
Sen. Gary Peters (D) has had a sleepy race against Republican challenger John James, a veteran and conservative media darling who has been a strong fundraiser. But that may be changing as outside groups pour millions of dollars into this race, causing polls to tighten in a way that worry some Democrats, especially as James has moderated his message for a state with Democratic leanings. A recent Fox News poll had Peters up eight points, 49 percent to James’s 41 percent. Other polls showed it closer — enough to worry Democrats that they could lose this seat if James convinces enough moderates to vote for him.
Still, this is the most Democratic-friendly swing state at the presidential level, with Biden leading by an average of nine points according to a Washington Post average. Are there enough Biden-GOP Senate voters in this hyper-polarized election to help James win?
4. Democrats unseat Republicans in Kansas, Alaska or Texas
The Democratic momentum we’re seeing across the nation is spreading to these conservative-leaning states, as well. In our final 2020 Senate rankings, these races are categorized as ones that could flip under the right conditions for Democrats.
In an open Senate race in Kansas, Democrat Barbara Bollier is just four percentage points behind Republican Rep. Roger Marshall, 42 to 46 percent, according to a recent NYT/Siena poll. Republicans are nervous after voters in the state elected a Democrat to the governor’s mansion just two years ago and picked up a House seat. “We’re still a red state, but we’re pinker than people think we are,” Patrick Miller, a political science professor at the University of Kansas, told The Post’s Annie Gowen.
In Texas, Sen. John Cornyn (R) has had a consistent, if sometimes narrowing, lead over Democrat MJ Hegar. A new Quinnipiac University poll had Cornyn up six points, 49 percent to Hegar’s 43 percent. But Hegar does have more ads on TV than he does, and a major Democratic super PAC injected more than $8 million in the final weeks of the race to help Hegar, a sign of Democrats’ optimism that things could go their way at the very end. Biden is also behind Trump by just two points here, according to a Washington Post average of polls.
In Alaska, there are very few high-quality polls to help us understand where independent Al Gross, a doctor and fisherman with money of his own to spend, stands as he tries to unseat Sen. Dan Sullivan (R). One, a recent NYT/Siena College poll, found that Gross trails Sullivan by eight points, 37 to 45 percent, as Trump’s standing in the state (as in many other places) falls compared with 2016. Alaska does have an independent streak and has elected Democrats to the Senate, but as a Republican strategist put it, this is a state that wants to vote Republican.
