Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) leads in the Democratic presidential race, but he has faced increasing criticism from competitors for the nomination over whether his identity as a democratic socialist will hamper his ability to beat President Trump in a general election.
Sanders did not specify what list of polls he was referring to, but he is correct that surveys have generally shown him holding at least a slight advantage over Trump in hypothetical general-election matchups. A Washington Post-ABC News poll this month found Sanders at 51 percent to Trump’s 45 percent among registered voters, similar to Biden’s 52 percent to Trump’s 45 percent when voters are asked whom they would support if the general election were held today.
That polling suggests Sanders’s image today is not a liability, but there is no guarantee his support would withstand sustained general election attacks calling him a socialist. (Sanders typically identifies as a democratic socialist, but in the past he has identified as simply a socialist.) While Biden, Buttigieg and other Democrats also have not faced the same level of scrutiny of their records as a presidential nominee would get, polling is crystal clear about Americans’ negativity toward socialism.
A January Gallup poll found less than half of Americans, 45 percent, said they would vote for a socialist for president, even if they were well qualified and from their own political party. Being a socialist was the least acceptable of 12 traits measured in the poll — 60 percent said they would vote for an atheist, 69 percent for someone who is over age 70, and 93 percent for a woman.
This month, an NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll found 46 percent of registered voters saying they would be “very uncomfortable” with a socialist candidate for president, and another 21 percent saying they “have some reservations about” that attribute.
On a basic measure, a December Fox News poll found 31 percent of registered voters saying they have a favorable view of socialism, while 53 percent were unfavorable. Ratings of socialism were up from 25 percent in early 2019, but ratings of capitalism remained far higher, with 57 percent rating it favorably, the same as last year.
It’s hard to know just how vulnerable Sanders would be to attacks on socialism if he became the nominee, with many voters locked into supporting or opposing Trump no matter what. Trump and Republicans seem eager to use the label against Sanders or whoever the nominee is.
The February Post-ABC poll provided a unique window into this issue, asking voters whether Sanders’s identity would make them more likely to support him against Trump, more likely to oppose Sanders, or if it wouldn’t make a difference. Respondents were assigned at random to be asked about Sanders identifying as a “socialist” or “democratic socialist,” though results did not differ dramatically.
Overall, 53 percent of Americans said Sanders’s identity wouldn’t make a difference in their vote, while 35 percent said they would be more likely to oppose him and 10 percent would be more likely to support him.
Most of the “more likely to oppose” group appears committed to supporting Trump. Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) supported Trump over all six Democratic candidates in head-to-head matchups, a strong signal that they had little chance of supporting Sanders anyway. Another 10 percent of the “more likely to oppose” group supported all six Democratic candidates against Trump, including Sanders, a group that is also probably committed.
But nearly 1 in 5 of the respondents who said Sanders’s identity as a democratic socialist or socialist made them less likely to support him were toss-up voters — people who did not consistently support Trump or Democrats in six head-to-head matchups. This group makes up 6 percent of adults and registered voters alike, and while not massive, is large enough to swing a presidential election.
This pattern is clearest among white college graduates, among whom 11 percent are both toss-up voters and say Sanders’s identity as a socialist makes them less likely to vote for him against Trump. That drops to 6 percent among non-college whites and 4 percent of nonwhite Americans.
One critical question for Sanders’s electability is how much public opinion of his democratic socialist identity is “baked into” his reputation already, given that he has over 90 percent name recognition in national polls. If so, additional criticism of him on this front may limit impact.
At the same time, Hillary Clinton had near-universal name recognition since her time as first lady, but her unfavorable ratings grew from the high-40s when she launched her second presidential campaign in 2015 to the mid-50s in fall 2016.
Emily Guskin contributed to this report.
