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House Republicans hammered <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/candidates/joe-biden-2024/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">President Biden</a> this week for his catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and rightly so — it was one of the worst foreign policy calamities in American history. But if Republicans cut off U.S. military aid to Ukraine, they will precipitate an equally disastrous foreign policy debacle — and they will own it in the same way that Biden owns the exit from Afghanistan.

The heart-wrenching images of Taliban forces marching into Kabul as desperate Afghans fled are seared into the minds of the American people. They have formed an indelible stain on Biden’s reputation. Before Kabul fell in August 2021, his approval rating had never dipped below <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/" target=_blank>50 percent</a>. Afterward, the floor fell out from under him — and he never recovered. The botched withdrawal was the tipping point after which many Americans decided Biden was incompetent.

Republicans should look at the damage the fall of Kabul did to Biden’s good name and imagine what the fall of Kyiv would do to theirs.

Already, their delays in new aid have tilted the battlefield in Russia’s favor. Last year, Russia made <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/19/volodymyr-zelensky-ukraine-news-conference/?itid=lk_inline_manual_5" target=_blank>no military gains</a> on the ground, whereas Ukraine succeeded in wiping out <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/warships-in-russia-black-sea-fleet-that-ukraine-wiped-out-2024-2" target=_blank>nearly one-third</a> of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet by the end of this January. But as aid has stalled on Capitol Hill, Russia has started <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/16/avdiivka-ukraine-russia-retreat-withdraw/?itid=lk_inline_manual_5" target=_blank>taking territory again</a>. If the Republican-controlled House doesn’t pass military aid soon, Ukrainians will start to run out of key weapons systems — and Russia will start making major advances on the ground this year.

Knowing that Kyiv’s stockpiles are running dry, Russia is preparing an offensive to start when the ground dries in late spring. Right now, U.S.-provided HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) hold Russian forces at a distance. But if those missiles, as well as small-arms ammunition and 155mm artillery shells, are not replenished, Russia will begin to break through Ukrainian defenses.

Today, U.S. air defense systems keep Russian bombers out of the sky and allow Ukrainian forces to shoot down Russia’s drones and missiles. But if Ukraine <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3679991/official-says-without-us-funding-ukraines-defense-will-likely-collapse/#:~:text=Also%2C%20without%20supplemental%20funding%2C%20Ukraine,Russian%20missiles%2C%20the%20official%20said." target="_blank">runs out</a> of missile defense interceptors, Russian planes will be able to bomb Ukrainian front-line positions with impunity. They will also be able to attack Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, plunging Ukrainian cities into darkness and crippling the nation’s economy. Then, they will almost certainly start carpet-bombing Ukrainian cities, forcing Ukraine to use its dwindling supply of interceptors to defend its civilian population and leaving its front lines exposed.

Eventually, as the interceptors run out, the civilian population will be left defenseless. Imagine the sight of manned Russian bombers flying over Ukrainian cities and devastating them. The result would be a humanitarian catastrophe. Russia would inflict civilian casualties on a scale unseen in Europe since World War II, intentionally targeting schools, hospitals and residential buildings to break Ukraine’s will. (If you doubt it, just look at <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/world/middleeast/russias-brutal-bombing-of-aleppo-may-be-calculated-and-it-may-be-working.html" target="_blank">Russia’s brutal targeting</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/31/russia-ukraine-mariupol-siege-aleppo-syria/" target="_blank">massacre of civilians</a> during its <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/us-accuses-russia-of-barbarism-and-war-crimes-in-syria/2016/09/25/c3a00750-833d-11e6-b57d-dd49277af02f_story.html" target="_blank">barbaric 2016 air campaign</a> in Aleppo, Syria.) A massive wave of refugees would begin fleeing the country, further demolishing the economy.

With air superiority, Russia could target not just Ukraine’s population and civilian infrastructure but also its domestic defense industry. <a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/29068" target="_blank">Ukrainian-produced weapons</a> such as the MAGURA V5 sea drone have been used (along with U.S.-made <a href="https://news.usni.org/2022/06/10/ukraine-deploys-anti-ship-harpoon-missiles-to-the-edge-of-black-sea-mod-says#:~:text=Ukrainian%20forces%20have%20deployed%20Harpoon,the%20Pentagon%20announced%20last%20month." target="_blank">long-range anti-ship missiles</a>) to smash Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet and force the Russian navy to withdraw from Crimean ports and Ukrainian territorial waters. This has allowed Ukraine to <a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/how-ukraine-overcame-russias-grain-blockade" target="_blank">resume grain exports</a>, which are critical to its economy. But if Ukraine runs out of anti-ship capabilities, Russian naval forces will return — allowing them to target <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/19/odessa-putin-attack-normalcy-ukraine/" target="_blank">the critical</a> port city of Odessa, cut off grain shipments and target civilian populations in western Ukraine, who will be newly exposed because of the depletion of Ukraine’s air defenses.

While Ukraine would not likely fall this year, the conditions would be set for a Russian victory in 2025 — just as (Republicans hope) <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/donald-trump/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">Donald Trump</a> takes office. So, Ukraine’s catastrophic collapse could well happen on the GOP’s watch, not Biden’s. Imagine the outrage as stunned Americans watch Russian forces marching into Kyiv, slaughtering and pillaging <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/02/bucha-borodyanka-grave-atrocities-ukraine/" target=_blank>as they did in Bucha</a> at the start of the war. Whom do Republicans think Americans would hold responsible for the atrocities playing out on their screens?

Indeed, the political repercussions in many ways would be worse this time. At least in Afghanistan, Biden could argue that the time had come to pull U.S. troops out of harm’s way. But in Ukraine, there are no U.S. troops in harm’s way. Republicans would have abandoned Ukraine not to save American lives but to save money. That might not be as popular a decision as they think when Americans are seeing the lifeless bodies of Ukrainian women and children on their televisions.

What about the possibility of letting Europe make up for these weapons shortfalls? The simple answer is: Europeans don’t have the stockpiles to do so. “Only the U.S. has the available stocks of ammunition, armored vehicles and their ammunition, and air defense interceptors to affect the trajectory of the conflict dramatically over the coming weeks and months,” says Fred Kagan, the director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, where I’m a senior fellow.

Here’s the bottom line: Without U.S. aid, Putin’s forces will begin marching toward Kyiv and Ukraine will become the next Afghanistan. So for Republicans, a time for choosing has arrived: Unless you want to be blamed for the fall of Kyiv the way Biden is blamed for the fall of Kabul, send military aid to Ukraine.

What the Hell Is Going On?

Marc Thiessen writes a column for The Post on foreign and domestic policy. He is a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and the former chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush.

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