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Olivier Douliery

Donald Trump’s latest position on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/abortion/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">abortion</a> is, basically, “whatever.” If antiabortion crusaders thought he was genuinely on their side, they should have been paying closer attention.

Earlier this year, he frequently boasted about having appointed three antiabortion Supreme Court justices who tipped the ideological balance on the court and overturned Roe v. Wade, which had been the law of the land for nearly half a century. “I did it, and I’m proud to have done it,” <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-says-proud-killed-abortion-rights-fox-town-hall-1234944546/" target=_blank>Trump said in January</a> at a Fox News town hall.

Now, however, he’s uncharacteristically reserved on the issue. He wants to convince voters that he poses no further threat to abortion rights — hoping they will ignore the fact those rights have been erased in much of the country, thanks to Trump. Democrats must not let him get away with this cynical ploy, which he has acknowledged is designed “to win elections.”

In a video posted to social media Monday, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/04/08/trump-abortion-statement/" target=_blank>Trump said he believes</a> whether or how to restrict abortion should be left to the states. He parrots some of the antiabortion movement’s rhetoric about the preciousness of life, and he tosses in an outrageous lie about pro-choice activists supporting infanticide, but his bottom line is that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/trump-clarifies-abortion-stance/2024/04/08/61eed1b5-75a9-48b3-860a-a4464f0b56af_video.html" target=_blank>each state should decide</a> for itself.

<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/24/abortion-politics-2024-campaign-republican-message/" target=_blank>Pro-life groups were urging Trump</a> to support federal legislation, and in recent months <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/16/democrats-trump-abortion-report/" target=_blank>it sounded as though Trump</a> might come out in favor of a national 15-week abortion ban. What prompted the change to his new leave-it-to-the-states position? I’ll bet it has a lot to do with what’s happening in one state in particular — the state where Trump holds court in his lugubrious Mar-a-Lago estate.

The story begins with Florida Gov. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/candidates/ron-desantis-2024/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">Ron DeSantis</a> (R) — “Ron DeSanctimonious,” in Trump’s coinage — who, because he wanted to be president, pushed the GOP-controlled state legislature to pass a 15-week abortion ban. Then, after Roe v. Wade was struck down, DeSantis — who really, really wanted to be president — had the legislature pass an even more draconian six-week ban.

Neither measure took immediate effect, pending judicial review. Last week, the Florida Supreme Court — most of whose members were appointed by DeSantis — <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/04/01/abortion-florida-supreme-court-ballot/" target=_blank>ruled in favor of the new restrictions</a>. The 15-week ban is now the law in Florida, but only until May 1, when the six-week ban will replace it. In the nation’s third-most-populous state, the right to choose will effectively be a thing of the past.

But also, perhaps, a thing of the future: <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/02/florida-supreme-court-abortion-ban-amendment-4-explained/" target=_blank>In a separate case</a>, the Florida court approved for the November ballot a referendum that would restore abortion rights by enshrining them in the state constitution. From Trump’s point of view: Uh-oh.

Since the demise of Roe v. Wade, ballot measures to guarantee the right to abortion <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/07/abortion-ohio-kentucky-virginia-elecitons/" target=_blank>have been approved everywhere</a> they have appeared — even in deep-red states <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/18/what-kansas-abortion-rights-win-means-kentucky/" target=_blank>such as Kansas and Kentucky</a>. In Ohio, citizens swept away a near-total abortion ban by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/07/ohio-issue-1-election-results/" target=_blank>voting in a landslide</a>, 56.6 percent to 43.4 percent, to protect “the right to abortion up to fetal viability,” which is about 24 weeks. These referendums tend to drive Democrats and rights-supporting independents to the polls in large numbers.

It has been assumed that the contest between <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/candidates/joe-biden-2024/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">President Biden</a> and Trump will be decided in the usual cohort of swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. But it has also been assumed that Trump has no plausible path to victory without Florida’s trove of 30 electoral votes. There is no guarantee that the abortion referendum will boost Democratic enthusiasm and turnout enough to actually put the state in play. But if voters in other red states are any indication, then there’s no guarantee that it won’t.

One thing that is guaranteed? Trump’s attempt to distance himself from the abortion issue won’t work.

As usual, he’s trying to have it both ways by taking credit for getting rid of Roe v. Wade while washing his hands of the consequences. That might work on some issues, but not on abortion. For activists who staunchly oppose abortion because they believe it is murder — and whose support is vital to GOP candidates, including Trump — a state-by-state approach does not go far enough. One prominent group, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, has already <a href="https://sbaprolife.org/newsroom/press-releases/leading-pro-life-group-responds-president-trump-abortion" target="_blank">called Trump’s new stance</a> “deeply” disappointing.

Trump will have to explain to them why he now opposes any kind of national ban. He can continue to tell these supporters how proud he is of taking women’s reproductive rights away. But the rest of us — the majority who support abortion rights — will be listening.

Trump might just stop talking about abortion altogether. His problem is that Biden won’t.

2009 Pulitzer Prize for Commentary

Coal to Cream: A Black Man’s Journey Beyond Color to an Affirmation of Race (Free Press, 1999)

Last Dance in Havana: The Final Days of Fidel and the Start of the New Cuban Revolution (Free Press, 2004)

Eugene Robinson writes a column on politics and culture and hosts a weekly online chat with readers. In a three-decade career at The Washington Post, Robinson has been city hall reporter, city editor, foreign correspondent in Buenos Aires and London, foreign editor, and assistant managing editor in charge of the paper’s Style section.

Eugene Robinson

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