What would have happened to friends and family if Gaza was home?

 and 
Hajar Harb
Updated April 5, 2024 at 3:54 p.m.Originally published March 25, 2024

The Hamas attack on Oct. 7 and the war in Gaza have deeply scarred Palestinian and Israeli societies.

The attack on southern Israel killed about 1,200 people. Six months later, Israelis describe a shattered sense of security, and are still wracked with anxiety about the more than 100 hostages held in Gaza.

Israel’s retaliatory war in Gaza has shattered the foundations of daily life. Six months of siege, airstrikes and street fighting have destroyed much of the enclave and killed more than 33,000 people, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, including 13,000 children.

The numbers coming out of Gaza can be hard to comprehend. So let’s bring it down to a smaller scale.

Imagine one person …

… the people closest to them …

… and everyone else they know by name.

For a typical American, that would be a social network of about 472 people, according to researchers.

This is what would happen to those people if they were in Gaza.

After six months of war, seven people are dead.

Among those who have been killed are 11-year-old Malak Shafar and her 10-year-old brother Malik, whose father, Youssef, said they were buried in the rubble after an airstrike.

Journalist Roshdi Sarraj’s wife, Shrouq Aila, said he was killed during an Israeli strike on his parents’ home two weeks before his daughter’s first birthday.

Almost no one has enough to eat.

Only 20 people can scrape together a minimally adequate diet. Everyone else is hungry. Nearly 1 in 3 are at risk of starving to death.

Some receive food aid, but it isn’t enough to sustain them or their children.

They might receive a water bottle and a can of food once per week, like Shahinaz Nofal and her children.

The amount of goods entering Gaza has dropped by about 70 percent since the start of the war, and food production inside Gaza has ground to a halt.

Many, like Mahmoud Ibrahim, have eaten nothing but foraged plants for the past three days. Others use animal feed to make bread.

Three out of every 4 people have fled their homes to seek safety in another part of Gaza.

Some, like human rights researcher Mohammed Ahmed Abu Rukbeh, had to move their family four times in a single day to stay ahead of the bombing in Gaza City.

Others, like Hamad Abu Sarhan, followed evacuation orders only to be bombarded days later in a “safer” zone.

Medical care is so hard to find for the displaced that pregnant women give birth on the ground, such as Walaa, who delivered her baby between tents by the light of her uncle’s cellphone.

More than half of homes in Gaza have been damaged by the war.

After the war ends, about half the people in Gaza cannot return to their homes because so many residences have been destroyed or severely damaged.

Ghada Abed, 31, still hopes to return to her old neighborhood once the fighting is done, to set up a tent adjacent to what used to be her home.

Most people who fled their homes are now in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city.

The people who lived in Rafah before the war are outnumbered 4 to 1 by the displaced. The Israeli prime minister says he intends to send the army into Rafah soon.

In Rafah, people describe hours-long waits for the bathroom and hygiene facilities so overwhelmed that sewage overflows into their tents.

Mohammad al-Akhras and his wife, Islam al-Khalidi, came to Rafah with their children after being displaced from Gaza City and two hospitals. The tent they live in now offers little protection from the heat and cold.

Israeli forces bombed the city even in the early days of the war. Abd Al Rahman El-Hessi, 12, nearly lost both feet to Israeli shelling in Rafah on Oct. 7.

Thirteen people managed to escape the Gaza Strip since the war began.

Some are U.S. citizens who lived in Gaza, like Momen Yaghi. The Yaghi family traveled by car, foot and horse cart to reach the Rafah crossing after a bomb destroyed the house where they sheltered in Gaza City.

Some families are split between those who can leave Gaza and those who cannot. Fares al-Ghoul fled to Egypt with his immediate family, his mother, his sister-in-law and her daughters. His father and brothers, though, remain in Gaza.

Those without connections or foreign citizenship, like Ghoul’s mother, sister-in-law and her daughters, can only leave if they pay thousands of dollars per person to arrange an exit permit — a sum far beyond what most Gazans can afford. Even then, they are not guaranteed an escape.

Some of the injured and ill have been allowed to leave. For every person who left Gaza for medical treatment, another is still waiting for approval.

Everyone else remains trapped in Gaza.

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Where we get our data about the Israel-Gaza war
When we’re reporting on issues such as the death toll in the Israel-Gaza war, we use information provided from the Gaza Health Ministry (an agency of the Hamas-controlled government), the Israeli government, the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the U.S. State Department and other international agencies.
The Washington Post, like other news organizations, cannot independently verify death tolls in the Israel-Gaza war. It is standard journalistic practice in conflicts to report figures from government officials and international agencies. This can sometimes mean accounts differ; when they do, we are clear about where specific information came from.
Verifying data is also complicated because the borders to Gaza are closed. Since Oct. 7, Gaza has been entirely closed to outside journalists, and Palestinian reporters there have been killed, while others are working under extreme risk.

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About this story

Editing by Sam Granados and Reem Akkad.

This story shows 472 people, the median estimated size of an American’s social network based on research by Tyler McCormick, Matthew Salganik and Tian Zheng. Their work uses a statistical model that estimates how many people someone knows by name, based on how many people they know with a specific set of names.

The effects of the war are not spread evenly, but on average, this is what would happen to 472 people in Gaza. Each person in this story represents about 4,700 Gazans.

The count of deaths in both Gaza and Israel include civilians and combatants. As of April 5, the Gaza Health Ministry reports that at least 33,091 people have been killed in Gaza. According to the Israeli government, about 1,200 Israelis were killed during the Oct. 7 attacks.

The population of Gaza in 2023 was 2,226,544, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. The population in Israel in 2023 was 9,727,000, according to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics.

The number of people facing each impact of the war is based on the share of Gazans who have died, faced hunger or displacement, fled to Rafah, or left Gaza. For example, at least 1.4 percent of the population of Gaza has been killed in the war as of April 5. Seven people is 1.4 percent of a group of 472, so we estimate that seven people in a typical American’s social network would have died if they lived in Gaza.

Hunger estimates are based on reports from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. As of March 15, no one in Gaza is food-secure; 96,000 people are in Phase 2 of food insecurity (“stressed”); 578,000 people are in Phase 3 (“crisis”); 876,000 people are in Phase 4 (“emergency”); and 677,000 people are in Phase 5 (“catastrophe”/“famine”). The IPC scales for food insecurity are defined in detail here.

Estimates of goods entering Gaza are based on reports from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. As of April 4, 19,034 truckloads of goods had entered Gaza since Oct. 7, compared with the 64,286 trucks that might be expected based on prewar averages.

Estimates of displacement and numbers of people in Rafah come from the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. As of April 3, UNRWA reports that at least 1.7 million people are displaced within Gaza. As of April 3, 1.2 million people were in Rafah; about 257,000 people lived there before the war, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics.

The number of Gazans whose homes are uninhabitable comes from a February 2024 World Bank report, which estimates that 1.2 million people in Gaza are facing homelessness due to damaged and destroyed residential buildings.

The share of Gazans who have exited the Gaza Strip is based on a Washington Post analysis of daily Telegram posts about travel in and out of Gaza by the Rafah Crossing Authority. The number of people who have been referred abroad for medical treatment and who are on the waiting list for medical referrals comes from OCHA. As of April 4, 9,389 patients in Gaza had requested medical evaluation. Of those, 3,529 have traveled abroad for treatment and 887 have been approved but remain in Gaza.