Rent is driving inflation. But there’s something off in the data.

Inflation came in hotter than expected in January, and it may take a few more months to know if that was a fluke or if price increases are getting stickier. But one key part of the inflation picture may already look far worse than things really are.

Rent costs have been driving inflation for months, at least in the way data shows up in the official reports. The Federal Reserve has pushed its baseline interest rate to the highest level in decades, and prices in most other areas are moderating. So it’s been a bit of a mystery to economists why rent hasn’t followed suit. That’s especially because almost every data source, except the consumer price index kept by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows that those costs actually are cooling significantly — or even falling — since growth peaked early last year.