The consensus among political elites holds that a large, divided GOP presidential field would help former president Donald Trump. That view is likely wrong.
The common wisdom goes something like this: In 2016, Trump offered a vision that attracted a plurality of Republicans, but not a majority. The large number of major candidates — 17 at one point — kept a clear opponent from emerging. Too many candidates stayed in the race for too long, allowing Trump to win a large majority of convention delegates with plurality victories. By the time the field winnowed down to two serious contenders, Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), Trump’s lead was essentially unsurmountable.
