It was an Atlantic hurricane season of high expectations from the start. But after a sleepy August with no storms, questions swirled about whether preseason forecasts for above-normal activity would be a bust.
A final spurt of storms in November, including Hurricane Nicole — which hit the east coast of Florida — boosted the season’s overall activity, but it may surprise some that 2022′s overall activity ended up somewhat below average.
Largely because of Ian, 2022 is a classic example of how even a somewhat quiet season isn’t necessarily a peaceful one. It only takes one storm.
Slow start to season defies predictions
Almost uniformly, predictions for the hurricane season called for above normal activity. Certain indicators — like a third straight La Niña, which tends to boost Atlantic storm activity — were flashing red. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted up to 21 named storms.
Then there was essentially no storm activity between July 2 and the end of August. August passed without a named tropical system for the first time since 1997.
“This unique season was defined by a rare midseason pause in storms that scientists preliminarily believe was caused by increased wind shear and suppressed atmospheric moisture high over the Atlantic Ocean,” NOAA wrote in a news release Tuesday.
But there was little chance the summer lull would last.
Ferocious Fiona
September delivered seven named storms, headlined by Fiona and Ian.
Fiona first made landfall as a hurricane Sept 18. in southwest Puerto Rico, and then again in the eastern Dominican Republic early Sept. 19.
Fiona knocked out the entire power grid in Puerto Rico; some locations remained without lights for weeks.
There were major floods and landslides as well. Several locations in Puerto Rico recorded more than 20 inches of rain from Fiona, most falling in less than 24 hours. Numbers are still being verified and quality controlled, but some totals at least came close to the record 24-hour rainfall there of 23.75 inches in 1985. At least 21 people died.
Fiona reached Category 4 on Sept. 22 southwest of Bermuda on its way to landfall in Canada. About the same time, Saildrone and NOAA were operating a robotic surfboard which navigated 50-foot waves in the Atlantic.
Although Fiona lost most of its tropical characteristics by the time it reached final landfall in Nova Scotia, a pressure reading on the coast of 933 millibars marked the lowest pressure on record for any storm to strike Canada’s shores. Generally, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. The storm battered coastal towns, sweeping away homes, peeling off roofs, flooding roads, tearing down trees and power lines and clogging streets with debris.
Ian: A stark reminder that it only takes one
Every season, forecasters and emergency managers remind coastal residents: It only takes one storm.
Hurricane Ian was the only major hurricane, rated to Category 3 or higher, to threaten the United States before it slammed into southwest Florida at full throttle. A Category 4 with 155 mph winds and massive storm surge of 12-plus feet, Ian devastated the region in and around Fort Myers.
Around 150 deaths were attributed to Ian, making it the deadliest storm to strike Florida since the Category 5 Labor Day Hurricane of 1935.
A significant number of the fatalities resulted from the catastrophic storm surge, or rise in ocean water above normally dry land. Inland flooding was also a major problem over the Florida peninsula as several rivers rose to record levels.
Ian’s path was eerily reminiscent of that of Hurricane Charley in 2004, but Ian was a much larger storm.
When storms cause severe losses to life and property, the World Meteorological Organization retires their names from its rotating list of names. Ian is sure to join the long list of retired I-named storms, and Fiona may be retired as well.
A November flurry … of tropical storms
Three different named storms spun up over the Atlantic basin during early November. In an unusual occurrence, the season’s final month became the second most active.
Tropical Storm Lisa, named on Halloween, became a hurricane Nov. 2. It struck Belize later that day. Storm surge swamped large parts of Belize City and there were scattered reports of wind damage and flooding from heavy rain in the region.
Hurricane Martin also developed early in the month, out of what was previously a nontropical storm. Although it never struck land after it attained tropical characteristics, Martin became the farthest north hurricane so late in the year, reaching at least 45.6 degrees north latitude over much warmer-than-normal ocean waters.
Nicole became the final named storm of the season when it formed on approach to the Bahamas and Florida on Nov. 7. Initially a subtropical storm, featuring a mix of nontropical and tropical characteristics, the storm turned fully tropical before making landfall in Florida.
When it struck near Vero Beach, Nicole became the second-latest landfalling hurricane in the U.S. on record, ranking only behind Kate in 1985. It marked the first time Florida was hit by two hurricanes in the same season since 2005. Nicole caused major coastal erosion around Daytona Beach, where numerous homes collapsed into the ocean after being battered by Ian just weeks earlier.
In sum: An average to somewhat below-average season
From its June 1 start to its Nov. 30 conclusion, 14 named storms formed in the Atlantic — which is exactly average. The eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes that formed were one above and one below average, respectively.
But when it comes to Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a metric used to describe the intensity and duration of an entire season’s worth of storms, 2022 was below average. The season’s raw ACE score of 95 compares to an average of 123.
“[T]his season ended up with just 80% of an average season’s ACE … the lowest since 2015,” wrote Brian McNoldy, a tropical weather researcher at the University of Miami, on his blog.
The below-average activity ended a six-year run of busier-than-normal Atlantic seasons.
But, “[i]t doesn’t take an active hurricane season to be a devastating one,” McNoldy wrote.
