Respond to prefers-color-scheme dark in app web views

Follow section front redirects in Spectrum

Enable NLP source in PCS for load testing

Switch off the News Alerts Survey Widget when we have enough responses

Poll to determine if new LUF updates are available

Allows the winning A/B test variant to be turned on without Spectrum deployment

Show infinite scrolling sections in Assembler MultiView

Show option for NLP article summaries in Action Bar

Show NLP summaries collection recirc on article pages

A general feature flag for Recipe Features that aren't yet released

Feature flag for media team features that aren't yet released

Use new Orca video player for preroll plugin in Spectrum

Show the snow tracker (instead of the heat tracker) on Spectrum

Biden once nearly died of an aneurysm. Risky surgery changed his life.

Election 2024 latest news: Primary elections today in Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia

Michael Cohen outlined a crime. Did he prove that Trump committed one?

Can you spot bad financial advice on TikTok? Take our quiz.

5 myths about Social Security as the program faces a funding crisis

Social Security has to be fixed. But you still need your own savings.

Man, 91, shocks tiny firehouse with $500K gift: ‘Nobody knew how much I’d saved’

Retired cop meets abandoned baby he helped 23 years ago: ‘What are the odds?’

I used to dismiss my mom’s advice. Then I found a note she wrote before she died.  

Haiti’s plight is a case study in the ‘responsibility to protect’

No, Apple, people do not want tech to crush everything in its path 

The urgent air defense lessons of April 16 

Ask Amy: What if the mysterious mourner at my dad’s memorial is my brother? 

Miss Manners: My relative’s memoir was poorly written and boring

Carolyn Hax: Is it ‘charming’ to stage a surprise wedding at a family reunion?

The wacky, grueling bike race that captivates a Midwest college town

Biodegradable fabric might be the next best thing in clothing

Are home prices still rising? See how prices have changed in your area.

How the authoritarian Middle East became the capital of Silicon Valley

These four searches show how Google is changing

OpenAI wants users to act natural around ChatGPT

Woman who punched crocodile to save twin awarded medal by King Charles

Trade pact would be a bonanza for Africa — if it can be made to work

14 dead after massive billboard in Mumbai collapses on gas station

Tired of overcrowded national parks? Here’s how to go backcountry camping.

Pete Buttigieg’s view from the middle seat

Airlines are trying to stop Biden from enforcing ‘junk fees’ rule

Ted Leonsis remains interested in buying the Nationals

Senator will block RFK site bill unless team honors family of logo creator

Nationals-White Sox rained out; Josiah Gray edges closer to return

Election 2024: Primary elections in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia

Angela Alsobrooks and David Trone are Democratic primary candidates for the US Senate seat in Maryland

Matt McClain

The good news for President Biden’s just-launched 2024 re<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">election</a> bid is that, for now, it doesn’t appear as though it will include a serious primary challenger. The bad news is that he’s ceding a significant and potentially embarrassing chunk of voters to an anti-vaccine activist.

Multiple recent polls show Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulling double-digit support in the primary, including a Fox News survey Wednesday that showed <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-trump-still-top-2024-republican-preference-desantis-slipping" target=_blank>him at 19 percent</a>.

That network has <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=site:foxnews.com+robert+f.+kennedy+jr.&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS952US953&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwikw-O94cr-AhURF1kFHZODDfoQ0pQJegQIBBAC&biw=1745&bih=852&dpr=1.1" target=_blank>frequently covered Kennedy’s campaign</a> and interviewed him more than once over the past week or so, as certain Republicans have made clear they see <a href="https://www.mediaite.com/politics/rfk-jr-announces-presidential-bid-after-bannon-reportedly-encouraged-him-to-run-as-a-useful-chaos-agent/" target=_blank>utility in elevating Kennedy</a> to undercut Biden.

How much might the candidacy actually undercut Biden? It’s probably worth not overselling the early polls, for a few reasons.

The National Review this week published an article suggesting that such a double-digit performance from Kennedy <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/04/biden-is-not-immune-to-rfk-jr/" target=_blank>could prove costly for Biden</a>. No incumbent president in the past 50 years has ceded that much of the vote to a primary challenger and won reelection, it noted.

That’s technically true, but it ignores a whole lot of nuance.

The first point is that we’re talking about a small sample size. There have been only three such instances, all more than 30 years ago: Ronald Reagan’s 1976 challenge to Gerald Ford, Ted Kennedy’s 1980 challenge to Jimmy Carter, and Pat Buchanan’s 1992 challenge to George H.W. Bush.

But each of those primary challenges was also more significant than even the early polls suggest Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s is. Reagan took nearly half of primary votes in 1976, Ted Kennedy took more than one-third, and Buchanan won a surprising 37 percent of the vote in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1992/02/19/us/1992-campaign-new-hampshire-bush-jarred-first-primary-tsongas-wins-democratic.html" target=_blank>1992 New Hampshire primary</a> and about one-quarter overall. In the first two cases in particular, there was genuine concern about the incumbent losing the nomination, not just losing a somewhat embarrassing number of votes.

The next point is that, in case you hadn’t noticed, one of those previous primary challengers shared a last name with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The latest Kennedy is Ted’s and John F. Kennedy’s nephew and Sen. Robert F. Kennedy’s son.

There’s plenty of reason to believe his early poll standing is significantly inflated by his famous name.

A few weeks ago, another poll on Kennedy <a href="https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1646215445819555949" target=_blank>caught my eye</a>. It was <a href="https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/qf4qaf2z28/econTabReport.pdf" target=_blank>from YouGov</a>, and it tested his image alongside a dozen other political figures. Of the 13 tested including Biden, Trump and congressional leaders, who was the most popular? Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Nearly half of Americans had a favorable view of him (48 percent), compared with just 28 percent unfavorable.

Is this because Kennedy is actually that popular? Of course not. It’s doubtful many people really know all that much about him.

But there is probably no name in American politics that is more golden, particularly among left-leaning Americans. A <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/165902/americans-rate-jfk-top-modern-president.aspx" target=_blank>Gallup poll</a> last decade found more Americans thought John F. Kennedy was a good president (74 percent) than any other modern president.

When you layer on top of that the fact that half of Democrats <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/12/democrats-desire-turn-page-biden-2024-is-highly-unusual/" target=_blank>don’t even want Biden to run</a>, it shouldn’t be too surprising that a fair number of people who haven’t really considered the 2024 race might go for a name they know.

We should all be skeptical that this will hold, particularly given Kennedy is best-known for <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/01/20/anti-vaccine-mandate-robert-f-kennedy-jr-march-washington-children-health-defense/" target="_blank">his dubiously founded vaccine skepticism</a> and that Democrats are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/10/massive-gap-between-republicans-democrats-vaccinating-kids/" target="_blank">increasingly the party of vaccines</a>. That doesn’t mean losing voters to such a fringe figure isn’t a headache for Biden, and perhaps some voters might like Kennedy’s environmental activism. But the idea that Kennedy will approach even a Buchanan level of support seems unlikely, the early polls notwithstanding.

More likely, it seems, is that this might be a situation akin to 1996. Then, as today, many Democrats didn’t want Bill Clinton to run again, and fringe figure Lyndon LaRouche <a href="https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/FederalElections96_PresidentialPrimaryElectionResults.pdf" target=_blank>managed to pull double digits in some primary states</a>. A Chicago woman who reportedly believed that God told her to spend a $120,000 disability settlement to run for president <a href="https://tulsaworld.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/four-democrats-challenge-obama-in-oklahoma-primary/article_6fe1197b-fbce-5603-b58e-edf92e47e230.html" target=_blank>took 11 percent in Oklahoma</a>. (Clinton went on to win reelection easily despite this.)

We’ve actually seen very recently how this precise name can translate into a sugar high in the polls.

The 2017 Alabama U.S. Senate special election featured a candidate by the name of Robert Kennedy Jr. (no actual relation this time). And a late Democratic primary poll showed him with a shocking share of the vote: <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/robert-kennedy-jr-leading-polls-no-not-one-n788441" target="_blank">49 percent</a>. That was more than 20 points ahead of the national party’s favored candidate, Doug Jones, despite Kennedy not seeming to have run an actual campaign.

“I understand that my name will give me some points,” that Robert Kennedy Jr. said when the poll came out. “But to suggest that my name in that particular poll gave me 49 points is disrespectful to the voters.”

Three weeks later, he received 18 percent of the vote, losing to Jones by nearly 50 points.

University of Minnesota

Aaron Blake is senior political reporter, writing for The Fix. A Minnesota native, he has also written about politics for the Minneapolis Star Tribune and The Hill newspaper.

Aaron Blake

washpost

Why Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polls at 19 percent against Biden

the-washington-post

“Defeat the Mandates: An American Homecoming” rally - Washington, DC

The Washington Post

staff

ÒDefeat the Mandates: An American HomecomingÓ rally - Washington, DC

Biden administration

The Fix

The 202s

Polling

Democracy in America

Election 2024

Balance of Power Pair

U.S. House Aggregate

U.S. Senate Aggregate

Politics

iptc-media/politics/political_process

iptc-media/politics/election/primary_elections

iptc-media/politics/election/voting

iptc-media/politics/election

iptc-media/politics

iptc-media/politics/government/heads_of_state

iptc-media/politics/government

iptc-media/politics/election/political_candidates

client-blocklists/Client List: Becton Dickinson KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/CLIENT LIST: Nomura KWs 2021 - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Tito's KW List - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Johnson & Johnson KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/P+ The Offer KW List - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Bed Bath & Beyond KWs - INCLUDE ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: USAA KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: T. Rowe Price KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Google PG KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: Discover Card KWs – EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/T. Rowe Price KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Microsoft KWs 2 - INCLUDES ANY

advertising/B2_Automotive Interest 2.5.15_legacyaux_jqs

client-blocklists/HBO KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Ford/Lincoln KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Kyndryl KW List - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Louis Vuitton KW List - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Navy Federal Credit Union NFCU KWs 2 - EXCLUDES ALL - 12.23.20

client-blocklists/Client List: Mercedes EQS KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/United Airlines KW List - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Diageo - Johnnie Walker KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/FlexForm KW List - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Facebook KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Boeing KWs 2021 - EXCLUDE ALL 

client-blocklists/Client List: Morgan Stanley KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Apple Marcom KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: Verizon KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Organon KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/WaPo: Combined Disaster Keyword List - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/CLIENT LIST: GOLDMAN SACHS SEC KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Synchrony Financial KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Hulu KW List - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: Beto for Texas KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/LV Queen 2022 Neg KW List - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: AT&T KWs 2022 - INCLUDES ANY - NEW

client-blocklists/Client List: Inpixon KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/WaPo: Natural Disaster Keyword List - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: PMI KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Ukraine-Russia (Apple News) KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Hermes KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: AstraZeneca KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Showtime KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: ExxonMobil KWs - INCLUDES ANY Q4 2022

client-blocklists/Client List: GM Energy KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Apple TV+ KW – INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Client Neg KW List: Omega KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Ronald McDonald House KWs - INCLUDES ANY

advertising/B2_Campaigns and Campaign Finance_legacyaux_l7e

client-blocklists/P+ Halo KW List - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Safeway KW List Commanders Q4 2022 - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/PMI KWs 2021 - EXCLUDE ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Morgan Stanley KWs - EXCLUDES ALL Q4 2022

client-blocklists/Marcus Goldman Sachs Neg KW List - INCLUDES ANY

advertising/B2_Congressional Elections_legacyaux_r48

client-blocklists/Capital One KWs 2 - EXCLUDES ALL - 1.4.21

client-blocklists/GEICO KWs - INCLUDES ANY_4.26.21

client-blocklists/Client List: Navy Federal Credit Union NFCU KWs Q4 2022 - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/UVA KW List Q4 2022 - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Eli Lily KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: IBM KWs ALTERNATE Watson - EXCLUDES ALL

advertising/B2_Democrats_legacyaux_izd

client-blocklists/Client List: Citibank KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/SAP KW List - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: IBM KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Citibank KWs 2021 - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: Purina KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: Fidelity Investments KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/WaPo: Combined Disaster Keyword List - EXCLUDES ALL Q4 2022

client-blocklists/Client List: Turbo Tax KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/CME KW List 2022 - EXCLUDES ALL 

client-blocklists/Client List: Hermes (Alexandra) KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

advertising/B2_Government & Policy_legacyaux_mza

client-blocklists/Client List: EY KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Bank of America KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Marriott KW List Q4 2022 - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: SAP 2022 KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/BP KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/DC Dept of Health Q1 2023 KW List - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Mercedes KW List Q2 2023 - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/National Instruments KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: Intel KWs - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Client List: Equinor KWs - EXCLUDES ALL

client-blocklists/Client List: AT&T Digital Divide  - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Samsung 2021 KWs - INCLUDE ANY

advertising/B2_Politically Active - DO NOT REMOVE_legacyaux_lmp

client-blocklists/Google PG Competitor KWs - EXCLUDES ALL 

advertising/B2_Politics_legacyaux_8f3

advertising/B2_Positive News_legacyaux_hlt

client-blocklists/BP KWs Q2 2023 - INCLUDES ANY

client-blocklists/Amazon KWs 2022 - EXCLUDE ALL 

prism://prism.query/site,/politics/the-fix?limit=20

The Washington Post's political analysis blog.

prism://prism.query/site-articles-only,/politics&limit=20

Cut through the 2024 election noise. Get The Campaign Moment newsletter.

Post Politics from The Washington Post is the source for political news headlines, in-depth politics coverage and political opinion, plus breaking news on the biden administration and White House, Congress, the Supreme Court, elections and more.