Donald Trump’s rally in South Carolina this past weekend was meant to promote candidates he endorsed against two Republican members of Congress. Instead, it showcased the strength of the incumbents.
His preferred choices gladly pledged loyalty to their lord. “Donald Trump has made his choice. Have you made yours?” asked Russell Fry, Trump’s candidate against Rice. Katie Arrington, Trump’s minion in the race against Mace, sucked up to Trump even more shamelessly: “You’re the best damn president this country’s ever had,” she gushed, placing the huckster from “The Apprentice” ahead of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln. She even burbled “I love you” as she hugged him on the podium. Barf.
Such a thunderous display might have scared Trump’s targets out of their races a couple of years ago. But Rice and Mace are standing their ground and firing back — and they have a real shot to win.
Mace is in the stronger position. A poll released in early February found her ahead of Arrington by a 54-to-25 percent margin. Mace’s lead dropped only a little, to 46-to-31, once respondents were told that Trump had endorsed Arrington. Even Arrington’s own polling has her behind Mace 50-to-35 percent, although it unsurprisingly shows Arrington storming into the lead once Trump’s endorsement is factored in. That likely won’t happen, as recent polls in other states show that about half of likely GOP primary voters either don’t care whom Trump endorses or are less likely to vote for the endorsee.
Mace also has a lot of star power in her corner. Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who served as Trump’s U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, backs Mace and recently headlined a fundraiser for her that brought in $300,000. That’s on top of the $1.5 million Mace had on hand at the end of 2021. The district, which includes Charleston and the state’s coast, is also not historic Trump country. He received less than 30 percent of the seat’s vote in the 2016 GOP primary, and the district even flipped to the Democrats in 2018. The losing candidate in that race? Arrington.
Rice is also not backing down. He fired back at Trump after the rally, calling the former president a “would-be tyrant.” But he has a tough road ahead. His seat is in true Trump country; the former president easily carried every county in the new district in the 2016 primary. South Carolina also requires a runoff if no candidate wins a majority, which means Rice will have to beat Fry one-on-one to prevail. While Rice has $1.8 million in the bank to fight with, he will have a tough time defending his vote to impeach Trump and contending with Fry’s largely conservative state legislative record. But no one knows what will happen as the campaign develops.
It might be telling that there are no publicly released polling data so far in the Rice-Fry race. Other Trump-endorsed candidates challenging establishment Republicans have often released polls purporting to show they will win when Trump’s endorsement becomes known. The fact that Fry has not done so might indicate his position is weaker than expected.
Analysts should also watch what Haley does for clues. She has so far steered clear of the race, but her last-minute endorsement of Rice in his first primary in 2012 helped him triumph. If Rice has a shot late in the race, and Haley endorses him, it would be a feather in her cap to have bested Trump in her home state.
Trump is taking a massive gamble this cycle by spreading his political capital far and wide. He’ll have his share of wins, but failing to knock off high-profile targets such as Mace or Rice would do significant damage to his standing. Russia’s stalled military campaign in Ukraine shows that if you try to seize all your objectives at once, you risk not getting any of them. Trump’s reckless, spite-filled intraparty campaign might just suffer the same fate.
