The Washington PostDemocracy Dies in Darkness

Opinion The path ahead for the GOP runs through the Ohio Senate race

By
Contributing columnist
October 27, 2021 at 3:01 p.m. EDT
Six Republican candidates for Ohio Senate hold a forum with the Center or Christian Virtue at Genoa Baptist Church in Westerville, Ohio, on Oct. 24. (Nicolas Galindo/AP)

COLUMBUS — “As Ohio goes … ”

Cliche, I know, and outdated on the presidential level after Donald Trump won the state but Joe Biden secured the presidency. But at the conclusion of a debate Sunday night among the top six candidates for Senate here, it was hard not to think of this update: “As Ohio goes, so goes the Republican Party.”

Because on primary day in May 2022, an Ohio GOP that at times seems schizophrenic will choose between Trumpist populism on the one hand and the traditional Republican agenda of responsible government and strong national defense on the other — and which way it goes could serve as a bellwether for the party from coast to coast.

I had moderated the debate on behalf of talk-radio station WTOH 98.9 The Answer along with Aaron Baer, president of the Center for Christian Virtue. The two hours of questions, answers and exchanges were civil and substantive. More than that, it was illuminating on where the GOP candidates think the GOP voter is and wants to go.

The six candidates are Ohio state Sen. Matt Dolan, a successful lawyer and now fixture of the statehouse from the family that owns and operates the soon-to-be Cleveland Guardians baseball club; accomplished investment banker Mike Gibbons; Jane Timken, past chair of the Ohio GOP; Josh Mandel, former two-term state treasurer; Bernie Moreno, wildly successful Cleveland businessman and Colombian immigrant; and author and investor J.D. Vance. Gibbons and Mandel have unsuccessfully sought the Senate before. Dolan has been elected three times to the Ohio House and once to the state Senate.

The question set ranged from whether they’d welcome the endorsement of Sen. Rob Portman (all six yes) and whether they would have voted for the infrastructure bill that Portman negotiated for the GOP caucus this year (Dolan was the only yes). There was little difference between them on the Southern border, judicial nominees and peace through strength. None were particularly in a hurry to commit troops anywhere, including in pursuit of the U.S. citizens left behind in Afghanistan. All of the candidates have had it with critical race theory, along with “woke” institutions in the private or public sector.

And all of them had good things to say about former president Donald Trump, though only Mandel proudly asserted the 2020 election was stolen. All are concerned about climate warming but more so about the economy. Gibbons and Moreno emphasized jobs. Vance attacked the Club for Growth, which has launched a fusillade of ads against him, as the “Club for Chinese Growth.”

No one will get around Mandel’s right flank, though the “Hillbilly Elegy” storyteller Vance has the charm and communications skills to give him a challenge for that lane. Gibbons has an earnest, friendly approach. Timken is the party stalwart and proven Trump ally — I can’t imagine him endorsing someone other than her, but I haven’t imagined a lot of the former president’s moves. Dolan is clearly running as the center-right moderate, supportive of a bill in the Ohio Senate that would be the county’s most significant voucher program but also committed to LGBTQ protections in the workplace. Moreno sparkles with energy and good humor. He’s good at this for a rookie.

Think of three pairs: Mandel and Vance are the outsiders of the political world. Timken and Dolan are the veterans who want to get an Ohio agenda accomplished. Gibbons and Moreno are successful businessmen in the mold of Sens. Mike Braun (Ind.) and Ron Johnson (Wis.).

All six have big piles of cash and big supporters in the independent expenditures PAC world. (Television ads are up and running … in October for a May primary!)

And because they are all in it to win it, this is a primary race with few precedents. I know of races where the last man standing was the only woman in a crowded field. I know of races where insiders have beaten outsiders and vice versa. Trump could make the difference here with an endorsement, but given the splintered field, it’s possible he could end up backing a loser. Does he want that on his résumé? He has picked horses in races where his influence seems likely to be decisive, but is that true in Ohio? There’s a reason all six candidates would welcome Portman’s endorsement. He outpolled Trump on the ballot in 2016.

The whole debate is online, but what you won’t see or hear is the capacity audience of 1,500. More than 1,200 bought a ticket to attend, a demand signal for serious talk about politics.

Six months is a long time for a hot running primary. “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation” is out. But which way will the Ohio GOP go?