The Washington PostDemocracy Dies in Darkness

With plenty of season left, a cloudy crystal ball for final CFP rankings

Analysis by
Staff writer
November 13, 2019 at 12:40 p.m. EST
Dabo Swinney and Clemson have a good shot at returning to the College Football Playoff. The outlook for the rest of the field is less clear. (David J. Phillip/AP)

The College Football Playoff selection committee released its second set of rankings Tuesday night, with its top three teams — LSU, Ohio State and Clemson — garnering little in the way of dispute. But faced with candidates of varying degrees of worthiness for the No. 4 spot, the committee seemed to throw up its hands and say — I’m paraphrasing here — “Eh, the team that lost to South Carolina. Sure, whatever.”

There’s still four more weeks of football either to sort all this out or confuse things even further. Let’s take a look into the crystal ball to see where all the candidates stand and the work they still need to do.

1. LSU (9-0)

Remaining games: Saturday at Ole Miss, Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas, Nov. 30 vs. Texas A&M, SEC championship game?

The Tigers will need to lose twice to miss the SEC championship game and, well, that doesn’t seem likely. Ole Miss (4-6) has three wins over FBS competition; those teams are a combined 4-24. Arkansas (2-8) is one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country and just fired its coach. Texas A&M should provide a stouter challenge in the finale, but the Aggies are 0-3 against top 10 teams and 6-0 against everyone else. That finale also may not matter in terms of the SEC standings.

Should the Tigers handle their regular season business, as expected, that would leave them with an SEC title game appearance against either Georgia or Florida. Winning that game would get LSU into the playoff. But what if the Tigers run the table in the regular season but then lose in Atlanta to finish with one loss? Would the committee take the SEC winner plus a one-loss Alabama team over LSU, even with the Tigers beating the Tide last Saturday?

2. Ohio State (9-0)

Remaining games: Saturday at Rutgers, Nov. 23 vs. Penn State, Nov. 30 at Michigan, Big Ten championship game?

Here is my five-star lead-pipe lock of the week: Ohio State will not lose to Rutgers as a 52-point favorite Saturday. Knowing that, the Buckeyes’ game the next weekend against Penn State seems likely to determine the Big Ten East race (this assumes the Nittany Lions beat a surely dispirited Michigan State team on Saturday).

Ohio State finds itself in similar shape as LSU, as it doesn’t need to win out to make its conference championship game. And considering just how dominant the Buckeyes have been this season (their smallest margin of victory has been 24 points), it would be very hard for the committee to reject an Ohio State team with just one loss, especially if it’s against Penn State or rival Michigan.

3. Clemson (10-0)

Remaining games: Saturday vs. Wake Forest, Nov. 30 at South Carolina, ACC championship game

The Tigers will be playing in the ACC title game no matter what happens against Wake Forest, though a loss to the Demon Deacons could be a fatal CFP blow for a team that has a win over Texas A&M on its resume and not a whole lot else. Since Clemson’s near-loss to North Carolina — a great escape on Sept. 28 for which the committee seemingly punished the Tigers in last week’s rankings — no team has come within 31 points of the defending national champion. It’s hard to see Wake Forest (a nearly 35-point underdog Saturday), 4-6 South Carolina or whatever sacrificial lamb the ACC Coastal Division offers up getting much closer than that, either.

4. Georgia (8-1)

Remaining games: Saturday at Auburn, Nov. 23 vs. Texas A&M, Nov. 30 at Georgia Tech, SEC championship game?

The Bulldogs have allowed only 17 points combined in their three games since their baffling loss at South Carolina (two of those wins were shutouts of Kentucky and Missouri). A win over either Auburn or Texas A&M will secure a spot in the SEC championship game, and wins over both will bolster a resume that already has wins over Notre Dame and Florida on it. But that loss to the 4-6 Gamecocks looms large, and nothing less than a one-loss SEC championship will likely get it done for the Bulldogs.

Georgia is No. 4 in the latest CFP poll, even though nobody really deserves that spot

5. Alabama (8-1)

Remaining games: Saturday at Mississippi State, Nov. 23 vs. Western Carolina, Nov. 30 at Auburn

It seems unlikely that Alabama will overtake LSU for a spot in the SEC championship game, which means the Tide will need a repeat of 2017 to get into the playoff. After an Iron Bowl loss to Auburn during the regular season’s final weekend that year, the one-loss Crimson Tide then watched the Tigers get their doors blown off by Georgia in the SEC title game and unbeaten Wisconsin get upended by two-loss Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.

That Alabama team sneaked into the playoff as the No. 4 seed, but it also had six regular season wins over FBS teams that finished the season with winning records. This year’s Tide has only two such victories, and one of them came against Southern Miss, so the “ain’t beat nobody” chorus is growing. Of course, Alabama is Alabama and the CFP committee — for all its talk about picking the four “best” teams — is going to give the Tide more brand-name leeway than anyone else, but that defense just allowed nearly 600 yards, too. Would the committee choose a one-loss Alabama team that didn’t qualify for its conference championship game over, say, a one-loss Oklahoma team that won the Big 12, or a one-loss Oregon/Utah Pac-12 winner?

6. Oregon (8-1)

Remaining games: Saturday vs. Arizona, Nov. 23 at Arizona State, Nov. 30 vs. Oregon State, Pac-12 championship game?

The Ducks have won eight straight since a season-opening loss to Auburn and could clinch the Pac-12′s first playoff berth since the 2016 season by winning out, which will be more controversial than it sounds: Oregon Athletic Director Rob Mullens is the selection committee chairman this year, and though he recuses himself whenever the group discusses the Ducks, imagine the howls from Tuscaloosa if a one-loss Oregon team that got beat by Auburn gets in ahead of a one-loss Alabama team that beat Auburn (assuming a Tide win in the Iron Bowl).

7. Utah (8-1)

Remaining games: Saturday vs. UCLA, Nov. 23 at Arizona, Nov. 30 vs. Colorado, Pac-12 championship game?

None of the Utes’ remaining opponents has a winning record, likely setting up Utah and Oregon for a winner-take-all Pac-12 title game. But unlike the Ducks, who need only one more win to clinch their division, Utah needs to win twice more to earn a spot in the championship game, thanks to its loss to USC on Sept. 20. And also unlike the Ducks, who at least played Auburn, the Utes’ toughest nonconference foe was probably a middling BYU team.

8. Minnesota (9-0)

Remaining games: Saturday at Iowa, Nov. 23 at Northwestern, Nov. 30 vs. Wisconsin, Big Ten championship game?

The Golden Gophers are 9-0 for the first time since the 1904 season, which is a wonderful accomplishment for a long-anguishing program. But a playoff berth may simply be too much to ask. For one, Minnesota’s win over Penn State was something of a mirage if you dig into the box score: The Nittany Lions outgained the Gophers by 58 yards and had two more scoring opportunities (defined as drives that featured first downs inside an opponent’s 40-yard line) than Minnesota. Another issue is the Gophers’ remaining schedule: Iowa and Wisconsin both are ranked, and Ohio State likely looms should the Gophers make it to the Big Ten title game. Add in Minnesota’s early-season schedule — the Gophers beat South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern by a combined 13 points — and you get a team with a lot still to prove.

9. Penn State (8-1)

Remaining games: Saturday vs. Indiana, Nov. 23 at Ohio State, Nov. 30 vs. Rutgers

The Nittany Lions aren’t out of the playoff race after Saturday’s loss at Minnesota, though there’s very little room for error, especially considering that a road game at Ohio State still looms. A win there would have a seismic effect on the conversation, however.

10. Oklahoma (8-1)

Remaining games: Saturday at Baylor, Nov. 23 vs. TCU, Nov. 30 at Oklahoma State, Big 12 championship game?

The Sooners have done everything in their power to play themselves out of the playoff race over the past three weeks, with a loss to Kansas State and a near-collapse against Iowa State (Oklahoma needed an intercepted two-point conversion pass to seal the win after leading by 21 in the fourth quarter). It’s hardly the kind of play the committee wants to see down the stretch, and some sort of extended excellence against Baylor on Saturday might be required.

11. Florida (8-2)

Remaining games: Saturday at Missouri, Nov. 30 vs. Florida State, SEC championship game?

12. Auburn (7-2)

Remaining games: Saturday vs. Georgia, Nov. 23 vs. Samford, Nov. 30 vs. Alabama

The committee ranked both of these two-loss SEC teams ahead of undefeated Baylor, even though no two-loss team has ever qualified for the playoff. But here’s a fun thought experiment: Imagine if the Tigers play super-spoiler, beating Georgia on Saturday and then Alabama in the Iron Bowl. That would give them those very impressive wins alongside victories over Oregon and Texas A&M and a likely 10-2 finish, but probably not a spot in the SEC title game (barring a unfathomable LSU collapse). What does the committee do with that? And what if Florida also finishes 10-2 with a resume that includes a win over Auburn?

13. Baylor (9-0)

Remaining games: Saturday vs. Oklahoma, Nov. 23 vs. Texas, Nov. 30 at Kansas, Big 12 championship game?

The Bears have been tempting fate all season, with five of their past seven wins coming by single digits, the latest a three-overtime victory over TCU in which they needed a 51-yard field goal at the end of regulation simply to force the extra periods. Four of the five teams they beat by single digits have losing records, as well. But undefeated is undefeated, and Baylor is in the conversation — the outskirts of the conversation, apparently — until it loses. Still, the Bears’ low placement — no 9-0 team has been ranked so low in the history of the CFP rankings — is a reflection of those skin-of-their-teeth wins and punishment for an early-season schedule that included Stephen F. Austin (a 2-8 FCS team), UTSA (4-5) and Rice (0-9). Beating Oklahoma and Texas would change the perception, obviously.

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