On what is sure to be a turbulent day for national politics, Election Day weather could hardly be more tranquil. Tuesday’s forecast calls for dry, mild weather over the majority of the country, with showers only expected in the typically rainy Pacific Northwest.
Weather conditions will not only be calm over the majority of the nation, but also substantially warmer than average. Temperatures will be about 10 to 20 degrees above average over much of the Central and Western United States, with widespread highs in the 60s and 70s. Only the East Coast will be a bit chilly, with temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees below average from Miami to Boston.
This mild, storm-free weather is highly unusual for early November, since it’s a time of year that often features powerful storm systems traversing the nation. It’s a welcome reprieve from an active weather pattern in late October which brought wildfires to California, record cold to the Rockies and Plains, Hurricane Zeta in Louisiana and a crippling ice storm in Oklahoma.
According to politics researchers, quiet Election Day weather boosts turnout because less reliable voters, easily deterred by rain, are more easily drawn to the polls. Several studies have shown that Democratic voters have historically been less reliable, leading to a weather-related maxim of campaign politics: Republicans should pray for rain.
However, weather’s impact on Tuesday’s turnout is likely to be significantly reduced compared to past elections due to early voting and the dramatic expansion of voting by mail during the coronavirus pandemic. A recent Washington Post-ABC poll revealed that about 6 in 10 supporters of presidential nominee Joe Biden planned to cast their ballots early.
The outcome of Tuesday’s presidential election is expected to hinge on results in about a dozen swing states. Here is an overview of the weather conditions predicted in these pivotal states:
- Arizona: Sunny skies. Lows: 50s and 60s. Highs: 70s and 80s. (These temperatures are about 15 degrees warmer than average.)
- Florida: Partly sunny. Lows: 50s north to near 70 south. Highs: Near 70 north to the upper 70s south. Windy conditions are expected in South Florida with some gusts to 25 mph. (These temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees cooler than average.)
- Georgia: Sunny skies. Lows: 40s. Highs: 60s. (These temperatures are about 5 degrees cooler than average.)
- Iowa: Sunny skies. Lows: 30s. Highs: Mid-60s to low 70s. (These temperatures are 10 to 20 degrees warmer than average.)
- Michigan: Sunny skies. Lows: 30s to near 40. Highs: Mid-50s north to near 60 south. (These temperatures are about 5 degrees warmer than average.)
- Minnesota: Sunny skies. Lows 30 to 35. Highs: Mid-50s to low 60s south. (These temperatures are 10 to 20 degrees warmer than average.)
- New Hampshire: Partly sunny and blustery. Lows: 25 to 30. Highs: 35 to 40. (These temperatures are about 10 degrees colder than average.)
- Nevada: Sunny. Lows: 40s in the mountains to the mid-60s in the desert. Highs: Mid-60s in the mountains and mid-70s in the desert. (These temperatures are 15 to 20 degrees warmer than average.)
- North Carolina: Sunny. Lows: 30s in the interior and near 40 at the coast. Highs: 60 to 65. (These temperatures are a few degrees cooler than average.)
- Pennsylvania: Sunny. Lows: 30 to 35. Highs: 40s, except near 50 near Philadelphia. (These temperatures are about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than average.)
- Ohio: Sunny. Lows: 30 to 35. Highs: 50 to 55. (These temperatures are near average.)
- Texas: Mostly sunny. Lows: 40s in the north to near 50 in the south. Highs: 70 to 75. (These temperatures are several degrees warmer than normal.)
- Wisconsin: Sunny. Lows: 30 to 35. Highs: 60 to 65. (These temperatures are about 10 degrees warmer than average.)
The bottom line is that weather is unlikely to be a substantial impediment to voting anywhere in the Lower 48. If anything, sunny skies and mild temperatures will motivate voters who haven’t yet cast their ballots, to turnout in large numbers.
Jeremy Deaton contributed to this report.
