Then there were 5. No, not the Big 5 we’ve been talking about for weeks. Those five -- Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma -- (mostly) coasted through another undefeated weekend. (Sooners, you’re on shaky ground.) We’re talking about the next five. After the favorites at the top of everyone’s list, there are only five remaining undefeated power-5 teams in the top 25.
That line of challengers was thinned considerably this weekend. Undefeateds went down all day long and all over the country. Most surprising was Virginia Tech, previously our No. 12, who lost to Old Dominion in the biggest upset of the year. But almost as surprising was then-No. 10 Mississippi State losing by 21 to Kentucky. And Oklahoma State and Boston College both lost games they weren’t supposed to, to Texas Tech and Purdue. To cap things off in true Pac-12-after-dark fashion, Oregon managed to give away a game they were inches from leading 31-7 in the second half.
What should we make of the remaining undefeateds? Are they good enough to manage the schedules in front of them? Which of the “Next 5” are most likely to crack the “Big 5”? Breaking down their chances tells us a lot about the key battles across the country.
No. 6 Penn State: Since barely surviving Appalachian State in Week 1, the Nittany Lions have won three straight by an average of 46 points. Of course the quality of their opponents has been more akin to that App State game than what they will face against Ohio State this weekend. Nevertheless, we expect Penn State to stand toe-to-toe with the Buckeyes (47-percent win probability) in the biggest game of the young season.
The road doesn’t get much easier after that, with games against No. 13 Michigan State, No. 17 Wisconsin and No. 5 Michigan. Will any team make it through the Big Ten East unscathed this year? We think that’s unlikely (32 percent), so Penn State could drop a game and still make it to the Big Ten title game with a good path to the playoff. But even that is a tall order, no matter how good they are.
Playoff chance: 25 percent
No. 11 Notre Dame: Notre Dame quietly put together the second best performance of the weekend in its 56-27 win against Wake Forest. Most important, that performance was fueled by a quarterback change that could augur well for the Irish. Where Brandon Wimbush has struggled since taking the reins last year, Ian Book accounted for five touchdowns in this first game.
Can he do it against tougher competition? We’ll find out right away since Stanford visits South Bend this weekend. We favor Notre Dame in that matchup (56 percent) and in all their remaining games, none of which are against a ranked opponent (after Virginia Tech’s shocking fall). Run the table and they’re almost certainly in, but they’ll need some Irish luck to manage eight in a row (16 percent). How would the committee treat a one-loss Notre Dame? A lot will depend on how the dominoes fall elsewhere and how good the Irish look the rest of the way.
Playoff chance: 24 percent
No. 12 LSU: No team has accomplished more this season than LSU, with wins over No. 7 Auburn and No. 10 Miami. But sadly, few teams have more work left to do. The Tigers must host No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Georgia and No. 14 Mississippi State, and travel to No. 15 Texas A&M and No. 23 Florida. Their chances of making it through with one loss or fewer? Only 8 percent. As much as we like the Tigers, their path looks too steep.
Playoff chance: 5 percent
No. 21 Stanford: The Cardinal are the luckiest of these five to still be among the undefeated. If not for both a 96-yard fumble recovery TD and a second fumble with less than a minute remaining Saturday night, we’d be writing about No. 36 Oregon in this space. Perhaps our model just doesn’t understand the value of 6-foot-7 tight ends, but we believe they are significantly overrated at No. 7 in the AP poll. They still have to travel to Notre Dame, Washington and Arizona State, so their time in this company probably will be short-lived. On the other hand, survive those games and they are likely in.
Playoff chance: 5 percent
No. 22 West Virginia: The Mountaineers continue to look fantastic against overmatched opponents. They have the No. 9 offense in the country, led by transfer Will Grier at QB and an intimidating collection of receivers. Their last four games – against No. 20 Texas, No. 16 TCU, No. 28 Oklahoma State and No. 8 Oklahoma – will go a long way toward determining the Big 12 title. The Mountaineers will be underdogs in three of those four games, and will need quite a few breaks to crash the Big 5’s party.
Playoff chance: 4 percent
Outside the Top 25 there are another six power-5 teams still undefeated - No. 27 Kentucky, No. 29 North Carolina State, No. 31 Duke, No. 32 Cal, No. 38 Syracuse and No. 62 Colorado. We can’t get worked up about these guys. Somebody here may trip one of the giants, but none will come close to the playoff themselves.
Of course No. 25 UCF is also undefeated and again carrying the flag for Group-of-five schools. But with the best team on their schedule only No. 40 Memphis, and one of their two Power Five games washed out by Hurricane Florence, this won’t be the year the G5 breaks through. Far more likely is one of the one-loss schools making a run. No. 5 Michigan, No. 7 Auburn, No. 9 Washington and even No. 10 Miami are all very strong teams that could bounce back from early-season defeats.
As dominant as the Big 5 have been, probability suggests at least one other team (82 percent) will make the playoff. Among the obvious contenders, we’re betting on Penn State, Notre Dame, Michigan and Washington, and against Stanford, LSU, West Virginia, Auburn and UCF. This weekend’s big games mean we don’t have to wait long to begin tallying those positions.
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