The Washington PostDemocracy Dies in Darkness

Trump is treating the Russia investigation as settled. Most Americans don’t agree with his conclusions.

Analysis by
National columnist
March 28, 2019 at 11:06 a.m. EDT
President Trump gives two thumbs up after stepping off Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on March 24. (Alex Brandon/AP)

There is a philosophy in politics that mirrors the well-known legal aphorism “possession is nine-tenths of the law": It’s much harder to dislodge an established political belief than it is to win a debate at the outset.

President Trump is aware of this. For nearly two years, he has been working to establish the idea that there was no collusion between his 2016 campaign and Russia, repeating that mantra over and over again. With the conclusion of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation of that question and the release of a letter from Attorney General William P. Barr indicating that Mueller didn’t establish that the campaign coordinated with the Russian government, Trump has worked to make his position even more concrete.

“There was no collusion with Russia,” Trump said Sunday while returning to Washington from his private club in Florida. “There was no obstruction, and — none whatsoever. And it was a complete and total exoneration.”

Barr’s letter didn’t make the claim that there was no obstruction of justice, explicitly quoting Mueller in noting that Trump wasn’t exonerated on that charge. But one political play here seems straightforward: establish in the public consciousness what Mueller’s report says, making it harder for political opponents to undercut that position when and if the full Mueller report is made public.

There’s just one problem with that effort. Americans aren’t completely sold.

In two polls released Wednesday, from CBS and CNN, Americans were asked their views about the conclusion of the Mueller inquiry.

CNN and its polling partner SSRS asked people how they understood Mueller’s findings, based on reporting about Barr’s letter. About 4 in 10 think Trump was exonerated of collusion. More than half, though, think Mueller simply couldn’t prove the point.

CBS’s poll added a layer of nuance. A plurality of respondents said that it was too soon to say whether Trump had been cleared of illegal activity “in the Russia matter” — which could certainly be interpreted to include the question of obstruction of justice. Nearly 6 in 10 respondents either said that it was too soon to say or that Trump hadn’t been cleared.

What’s more, the CBS poll found that, on the central issue of improper contact between Trump’s team and Russia, most Americans thought something untoward was somewhat likely to have happened.

This, too, is open to a wide range of interpretations: Does it, for example, include former national security adviser Michael T. Flynn’s conversations with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak in December 2016? But the top line is clear: A third of Americans say it’s very likely that there were improper contacts.

That said, another element of Trump’s rhetoric has taken hold: that the investigation itself was motivated by politics. According to CBS, more than half of Americans think the investigation of possible collusion was politically motivated, powered by a majority of independents and three-quarters of Republicans holding that position.

For Trump, that’s an advantage, a bit of nine-tenths ownership that will serve him well. If Americans are prone to thinking that the investigation was political in nature, it might mean that any further revelations about what Mueller found will be treated with skepticism.

Of course, we’ll also note that Trump’s presentation of what Mueller determined has already gained a solid foothold — among Republicans. Although a fifth told CBS that it’s too soon to determine whether Trump has been fully cleared, three-quarters told CNN that they think he has been exonerated.

Over the weekend, before Barr’s letter was published, Fox News Channel presented a poll suggesting that most people didn’t think anything in the Mueller report was very likely to change their minds about Trump.

It’s still not entirely clear how accurate that self-assessment was, either.