Alabama election exit poll results

Percentage-point lead in select groups

Democrat Doug Jones

Women + 16
Under age 30 + 22
Black + 92
Independent or something else + 8
Disapprove of Trump + 87

Republican Roy Moore

White women + 29 White no college degree + 55 Approve of Trump + 80 Abortion should always be illegal + 62 Decided in December + 12

Why Jones won: Moore missed Trump’s standard in every Alabama county

See how different groups voted in the special election for U.S. Senate in Alabama between Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones. The poll was conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, The Washington Post and other media organizations. Click here for exit poll methodology.

[Alabama Senate results: Democrat Doug Jones declared winner over Roy Moore]

Jones benefitted from near-unanimous support from black voters, historically large support from whites

Fully 96 percent of African Americans supported Jones, similar to President Obama’s 95 percent support among this group in 2012. But Jones fared much better than Obama among white voters, garnering 30 percent of their votes, twice the 15 percent who voted for Obama. Jones made particularly large gains among white women and those with college degrees.

Race

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

White 66% of voters

30%

2%

68%

Black 29% of voters

96%

4%

NET Nonwhite 34% of voters

88%

11%

Moore won among white college graduate women

Exit poll results showed Moore faring worse among white voters than Republicans in previous Alabama elections, but he maintained a lead among both white men and women and those with and without college degrees.

Nationwide, the 2016 election brought about a stark divide in support among whites by both gender and education, with white women and college graduates more likely to recoil from Trump’s campaign and swing in Democrats’ direction than white men and those without college degrees.

Education

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

College graduates 44% of voters

54%

2%

43%

Non-college graduates 56% of voters

47%

1%

52%

Education by race

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

White college graduate 30% of voters

40%

3%

57%

White no college degree 36% of voters

22%

2%

77%

Nonwhite college graduate 14% of voters

86%

1%

14%

Nonwhite no college degree 20% of voters

90%

10%

In Alabama, Moore held a small edge among white women with college degrees and a roughly 25-point lead among white men with college degrees. Moore led by almost 50 points among white women without degrees and by 60 points among white men without college degrees.

The divide is notably stark, but Jones still did not prevail among any of these four groups. In 2016, the national exit poll found Hillary Clinton won white women with college degrees by a 51 to 44 percent margin, despite losing to Trump in the Electoral College.

Education by race and gender

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

White college graduate women 14% of voters

45%

3%

52%

White non-college graduate women 17% of voters

25%

2%

73%

White college graduate men 16% of voters

35%

3%

62%

White non-college graduate men 19% of voters

19%

2%

79%

Conservative and Republican turnout differed little from past in Alabama

Conservatives and Republicans each make up more than 4 in 10 Alabama voters, according to exit poll results, figures that are on par or down just slightly from presidential elections in 2012 and 2008 won handily by Republican presidential nominees.

In 2012, conservatives made up 47 percent of the electorate while Republicans accounted for 43 percent, very similar to exit polls in Tuesday’s special election for U.S. Senate.

Party identification

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Democrat 37% of voters

98%

2%

Republican 43% of voters

8%

1%

91%

Independent or something else 21% of voters

51%

5%

43%

More Alabama voters identified as liberal in exit polls than they had in either the 2008 or 2012 presidential elections in the state.

While the share of liberals has increased nationwide in the past few elections, the exit poll finding is also much different than recent statewide polling. In 2016, Gallup found 17 percent of adults in Alabama identifying as liberal, putting it in the bottom fifth of states.

Ideology

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Liberal 23% of voters

86%

14%

Moderate 31% of voters

74%

2%

25%

Conservative 45% of voters

15%

2%

83%

White evangelical Christians were the only group showing slight signs of slippage in exit polls. They made up 44 percent of voters compared with 47 percent of voters in the 2012 and 2008 presidential elections.

Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

White born-again Christians 44% of voters

18%

2%

80%

Everyone else 56% of voters

76%

2%

22%

Most said Moore allegations were not important factor in vote

A small majority of Alabama voters said allegations of sexual misconduct by Moore are true, just over 4 in 10 said they were false in exit poll data.

Do you think the allegations of sexual misconduct against Roy Moore are:

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Definitely or probably true 52% of voters

89%

2%

8%

Definitely or probably false 43% of voters

4%

1%

94%

Regardless of those views, a small majority of voters said the allegations were “a minor factor” or “not a factor” in their vote, while about 4 in 10 said the allegations were an important factor.

Under 1 in 10, notably, said the allegations against Moore were the single most important factor in their vote.

In deciding your vote for U.S. Senate today, were the allegations of sexual misconduct against Roy Moore:

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

The single most important factor 7% of voters

Not enough respondents to break down details.

One of several important factors 34% of voters

83%

2%

15%

A minor factor 19% of voters

34%

1%

65%

Not a factor at all 35% of voters

23%

1%

76%

Young voters back Jones by wide margin

Alabama voters ages 18 to 44 supported Jones by a roughly 20-point margin over Moore, marking a stark shift from 2012 when Mitt Romney won voters under 45 by a small margin.

Moore led among older voters, especially seniors, who favored him over Jones by about 20 points.

Age

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

18-29 13% of voters

60%

3%

38%

30-44 22% of voters

61%

1%

38%

45-64 41% of voters

47%

2%

51%

65+ 23% of voters

40%

1%

59%

Anti-abortion voters supported Moore

A slight majority of Alabama voters said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, and Moore garnered more than 7 in 10 votes among that group. Jones won more than 8 in 10 votes among the roughly 4 in 10 voters who said abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

The finding underscores that Alabama is more conservative on the issue than the country as a whole. A July national poll by the Pew Research Center asking a similar question found the public leaning clearly in the opposite direction, with 57 percent saying abortion should be mostly legal in most cases, while 40 percent said it should mostly be illegal.

[How abortion became Roy Moore’s response to sexual misconduct allegations]

Abortion should be:

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Legal in all cases 15% of voters

86%

1%

13%

Legal in most cases 27% of voters

77%

1%

21%

Illegal in most cases 25% of voters

34%

2%

64%

Illegal in all cases 27% of voters

18%

2%

80%

Most women and independents thought allegations against Moore are true

By roughly 20-point margin, more female Alabama voters said allegations of sexual misconduct against Roy Moore are true than said they are false.

Gender

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Men 49% of voters

42%

2%

56%

Women 51% of voters

57%

1%

41%

Sex by race

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

White men 35% of voters

26%

2%

72%

White women 31% of voters

34%

2%

63%

Black men 11% of voters

93%

1%

6%

Black women 17% of voters

98%

2%

Trump disapproval rivaled approval in state he won by 28 points

Trump won Alabama with 62 percent of the vote in 2016, but he enjoyed far less support among voters in Tuesday’s Senate election in Alabama.

How do you feel about the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Approve 48% of voters

9%

2%

89%

Disapprove 48% of voters

93%

1%

6%

Was one reason for your vote for U.S. Senate today:

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

To express support for Donald Trump 27% of voters

2%

1%

97%

To express opposition to Donald Trump 19% of voters

97%

3%

Donald Trump was not a factor 51% of voters

56%

3%

42%

Jones bested Moore in personal favorability

Exit polling found neither candidate for Senate was particularly popular among Alabama voters, but Moore’s image was more negative.

Just over 4 in 10 Alabama voters had a favorable view of Moore while a small majority were unfavorable. Ratings of Jones were roughly even, with about half rating him positively and half negatively.

Is your opinion of Roy Moore:

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Favorable 41% of voters

3%

97%

Unfavorable 56% of voters

85%

3%

12%

Is your opinion of Doug Jones:

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Favorable 51% of voters

97%

3%

Unfavorable 48% of voters

2%

3%

95%

Does Roy Moore share your values?

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Yes 46% of voters

5%

95%

No 49% of voters

91%

3%

6%

Does Doug Jones share your values?

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Yes 48% of voters

96%

1%

4%

No 49% of voters

6%

3%

91%

Late deciders favored Moore

Exit poll data suggested Roy Moore gained some late momentum in the race. About 1 in 5 Alabama voters said they finally decided who to vote for in December, and this group favored Moore by a 12 percentage-point margin.

When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the U.S. Senate election?

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

December 21% of voters

42%

4%

54%

Before then 78% of voters

53%

1%

46%

More Alabamians wanted Republicans to control Senate than Democrats

By a narrow 50 to 45 percent margin, more Alabama voters said they wanted Republicans to control the Senate than Democrats.

More than 9 in 10 voters who favored each party support their party’s respective candidate in Tuesday’s Senate race, but the level of unanimity is not equal.

While 99 percent of voters who favored a Democratic-controlled Senate backed Jones, a slightly smaller 91 percent of those who favored Republican control backed Moore. Jones’ 6 percent support among that group helped him make up the difference.

[Doug Jones’s victory scrambles the Republican congressional agenda]

Would you rather see the U.S. Senate controlled by:

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

The Democratic Party 45% of voters

99%

1%

The Republican Party 50% of voters

6%

2%

91%

Children in home

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Child in household 35% of voters

56%

2%

42%

No children in household 65% of voters

49%

1%

50%

Parents

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Fathers 14% of voters

41%

3%

56%

Mothers 20% of voters

66%

2%

32%

Men without children 32% of voters

43%

1%

56%

Women without children 33% of voters

55%

44%

Is your opinion of the Democratic Party:

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Favorable 47% of voters

96%

4%

Unfavorable 50% of voters

9%

3%

88%

Is your opinion of the Republican Party:

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Favorable 43% of voters

8%

2%

90%

Unfavorable 52% of voters

86%

1%

12%

Which of these best describes your vote today for U.S. Senate?

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Strongly favor my candidate 65% of voters

59%

1%

41%

Like my candidate but with reservations 21% of voters

29%

1%

70%

I dislike the other candidate 12% of voters

44%

9%

47%

Population of area

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

City of 50,000 20% of voters

85%

1%

14%

Suburbs 38% of voters

47%

2%

51%

Small cities and rural 42% of voters

36%

2%

62%

Geographic area

Jones (D)

Write-in

Moore (R)

Northern Alabama 22% of voters

42%

2%

56%

North Central 24% of voters

39%

2%

60%

Birmingham/South Central 31% of voters

68%

1%

30%

Southern Alabama 22% of voters

45%

1%

54%