Sanders
Clinton
THE WHITE
NORTHEAST
MINORITIES IN
THE SOUTH
Sanders
Clinton
THE WHITE NORTHEAST
MINORITIES IN THE SOUTH
Sanders
Clinton
THE WHITE NORTHEAST
MINORITIES IN THE SOUTH
Hillary Clinton expects to do best across Super Tuesday’s six Southern states. Blacks, who have strongly favored Clinton, account for a significant voter share in them all. Her must-win state is Virginia, where she has close ties with Gov. Terry McAuliffe, and even a close win could be seen as underperforming.
Bernie Sanders has his best chance of winning in five Super Tuesday states, all outside the South. They’re mostly white and include significant segments of liberal or working-class voters, as well as Sanders’s home state of Vermont. His must-win state: Minnesota.
Delegates at stake
Texas
222
Georgia
102
Virginia
95
Tennessee
67
Alabama
53
Arkansas
32
Massachusetts
91
Minnesota
77
Colorado
66
Oklahoma
38
Vermont
16
Where minorities have major roles
Super Tuesday will give full voice to minorities. Hispanics’ votes will heavily influence the Texas primary, and blacks’, the races in Georgia and Alabama. These population breakdowns are from the U.S. Census.
[Support among black voters raises questions about Sanders’s ability to compete]
Black
Each triangle represents a state. The vertex represents the share of each minority in each state.
40%
30%
GEORGIA
20%
10%
OKLAHOMA
0%
TEXAS
Other
minorities
Hispanic
MOSTLY BLACK
All of the Super Tuesday Southern states have significant black populations, and because most are Democrats, their share among primary voters is often double. In the Nevada primary, Clinton won black voters by more than three to one, according to a network entrance poll, and other surveys elsewhere have found similar margins in her favor among blacks.
Alabama
black
26%
Arkansas
3%
4%
black
16%
4%
7%
Tennessee
black
17%
4%
5%
Virginia
black
19%
Georgia
black
30%
8%
9%
6%
9%
MOSTLY LATINO
A new national survey by the Washington Post and Univision News found Clinton leading Sanders two to one among Hispanic Democratic primary voters. In Texas, which has by far the most Hispanics among Super Tuesday states, they accounted for a third of Democratic primary voters in 2008.
Texas
black
12%
6%
38%
black
Colorado
4%
6%
21%
Massachusetts
black
6%
8%
10%
OTHER MINORITIES
In Oklahoma, one of the most diverse primary states, other minorities such as Native Americans and people who identify as multi-racial, account for about 16 percent of population.
Minnesota
black
5%
5%
8%
black
Oklahoma
7%
9%
16%
Vermont
black
1%
4%
2%
Black
40%
Each triangle represents a state. The vertex represents the share of each minority in each state.
30%
GEORGIA
20%
10%
OKLAHOMA
0%
TEXAS
Other
minorities
Hispanic
MOSTLY BLACK
MOSTLY LATINO
OTHER MINORITIES
All of the Super Tuesday Southern states have significant black populations, and because most are Democrats, their share among primary voters is often double. In the Nevada primary, Clinton won black voters by more than three to one, according to a network entrance poll, and other surveys elsewhere have found similar margins in her favor among blacks.
A new national survey by the Washington Post and Univision News found Clinton leading Sanders two to one among Hispanic Democratic primary voters. In Texas, which has by far the most Hispanics among Super Tuesday states, they accounted for a third of Democratic primary voters in 2008.
In Oklahoma, one of the most diverse primary states, other minorities such as Native Americans and people who identify as multi-racial, account for about 16 percent of population.
Alabama
Texas
Minnesota
black
black
black
26%
12%
5%
3%
4%
5%
6%
8%
38%
Texas, with its large share of Hispanics, will clarify that group’s leanings. Last week’s Nevada entrance poll said Sanders won Hispanics there by eight points, but other polls elsewhere have shown Hispanics firmly behind Clinton.
Minnesota is a must-win for Sanders. It has all his key support groups, and his rallies have drawn large crowds. If he doesn’t win, it will show that, coming off of Clinton’s Saturday win in South Carolina, momentum has swung her way.
Arkansas
black
16%
4%
7%
Tennessee
black
17%
Colorado
black
Oklahoma
black
4%
5%
4%
6%
7%
21%
9%
16%
Virginia
black
19%
Massachusetts
black
Vermont
black
8%
9%
6%
8%
10%
1%
4%
2%
Georgia
black
30%
6%
9%
Black
Each triangle represents a state. The vertex represents the share of each minority in each state.
40%
30%
GEORGIA
20%
10%
OKLAHOMA
0%
TEXAS
Other
minorities
Hispanic
MOSTLY BLACK
MOSTLY LATINO
OTHER MINORITIES
All of the Super Tuesday Southern states have significant black populations, and because most are Democrats, their share among primary voters is often double. In the Nevada primary, Clinton won black voters by more than three to one, according to a network entrance poll, and other surveys elsewhere have found similar margins in her favor among blacks.
A new national survey by the Washington Post and Univision News found Clinton leading Sanders two to one among Hispanic Democratic primary voters. In Texas, which has by far the most Hispanics among Super Tuesday states, they accounted for a third of Democratic primary voters in 2008.
In Oklahoma, one of the most diverse primary states, other minorities such as Native Americans and people who identify as multi-racial, account for about 16 percent of population.
Alabama
Texas
Minnesota
black
black
black
26%
12%
5%
3%
4%
5%
6%
8%
38%
Texas, with its large share of Hispanics, will clarify that group’s leanings. Last week’s Nevada entrance poll said Sanders won Hispanics there by eight points, but other polls elsewhere have shown Hispanics firmly behind Clinton.
Minnesota is a must-win for Sanders. It has all his key support groups, and his rallies have drawn large crowds. If he doesn’t win, it will show that, coming off of Clinton’s Saturday win in South Carolina, momentum has swung her way.
Arkansas
black
16%
4%
7%
Tennessee
Oklahoma
Colorado
black
black
black
17%
7%
4%
4%
5%
6%
9%
16%
21%
Vermont
black
Virginia
Massachusetts
black
black
19%
6%
1%
8%
4%
2%
8%
9%
10%
Georgia
black
30%
6%
9%
Texas: A yardstick for Clinton
Clinton won Texas handily over Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential primary, 51 to 47 percent. She lost in major cities but carried vast swaths across the rest of the state. That win will be a comparison benchmark of her showing on Tuesday.
CLINTON WAS 1ST IN 2008
OBAMA WIN OR TIE
Dallas
Austin
San Antonio
Houston
CLINTON WAS 1ST IN 2008
OBAMA WIN OR TIE
Dallas
Austin
Houston
San Antonio
CLINTON WAS 1ST IN 2008
OBAMA WIN OR TIE
Dallas
Austin
Houston
San Antonio
The decisive month of March
After a month of small contests, Super Tuesday will decide 859 delegates. It’s the largest single day of contests in a month with a total of 2,123 delegates up for grabs in primaries and caucuses.
Feb.
March
April
May
June
2,123 delegates
156
731
228
694
859 delegates are up for
grabs on Super Tuesday
Note: Totals include state pledged delegates only
Feb.
March
April
May
June
2,123 delegates
156
731
228
694
859 delegates are up for
grabs on Super Tuesday
Note: Totals include state pledged delegates only
NH
WA
VT
ME
MT
ND
OR
MN
MA
ID
WI
NY
SD
RI
WY
MI
CT
PA
IA
NJ
NE
NV
OH
IN
IL
DE
UT
CO
WV
CA
VA
MD
KS
MO
KY
DC
NC
TN
OK
AZ
AR
NM
SC
AL
GA
MS
LA
TX
AK
HI
FL
PR
NH
WA
VT
ME
MT
ND
OR
MN
MA
ID
WI
NY
SD
RI
WY
MI
CT
PA
IA
NJ
NE
NV
OH
IN
IL
DE
UT
CO
WV
CA
VA
MD
KS
MO
KY
DC
NC
TN
OK
AZ
AR
NM
SC
AL
GA
MS
LA
TX
AK
HI
FL
PR
Who gets the Super momentum?
When Super Tuesday’s votes are tallied, both Clinton and Sanders will still be far from the 2,383 delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination. But what those votes say could either make Clinton’s nomination appear inevitable or signal a protracted contest with a less unpredictable outcome.
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