The 1-2 punch
Since 1980, every Republican and Democratic nominee has finished either first or second in New Hampshire, sometimes after stumbling in — or even skipping — Iowa.
IOWA
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Held steady
Al Gore, ’00
John Kerry, ’04
1
1
Dropped
Gained
2
2
Walter Mondale, ’84
Robert Dole, ’96
George W. Bush, ’00
Barack Obama, ’08
Mitt Romney, ’12
Ronald Reagan, ’80
3
George H.W. Bush, ’88
Michael Dukakis, ’88
John McCain, ’08
Skipped Iowa,
first in New Hampshire
4
Bill Clinton, ’92
You’re not in Iowa anymore
The first presidential primary of 2016 could resurrect or sink
campaigns. As in 2012, Iowans have favored
candidates,
evangelical
while voters in New Hampshire pick more
and
establishment
candidates.
libertarian
2012 GOP Primaries
IOWA
NEW HAMPSHIRE
1. Mitt Romney
2. Ron Paul
3. Jon Huntsman
4. Newt Gingrich
5. Rick Santorum
1. Rick Santorum
2. Mitt Romney
3. Ron Paul
4. Newt Gingrich
7. Jon Huntsman
The 1-2 punch
Since 1980, every Republican and Democratic nominee has finished either first or second in New Hampshire, sometimes after stumbling in — or even skipping — Iowa.
IOWA
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Held steady
Al Gore, ’00
John Kerry, ’04
1
1
Dropped
Gained
Walter
Mondale, ’84
Robert Dole, ’96
George
W. Bush, ’00
Barack Obama, ’08
Mitt Romney, ’12
Ronald Reagan, ’80
2
2
George H.W.
Bush, ’88
Michael
Dukakis, ’88
3
Bill Clinton, ’92
John McCain, ’08
Skipped Iowa,first
in New Hampshire
4
You’re not in Iowa anymore
The first presidential primary of 2016
could resurrect or sink campaigns. As in 2012,
Iowans have favored
while voters in New Hampshire pick more
candidates.
candidates,
evangelical
and
establishment
libertarian
2012 GOP Primaries
IOWA
NEW HAMPSHIRE
1. Mitt Romney
2. Ron Paul
3. Jon Huntsman
4. Newt Gingrich
5. Rick Santorum
1. Rick Santorum
2. Mitt Romney
3. Ron Paul
4. Newt Gingrich
7. Jon Huntsman
[Political spotlight swings to famously slow-to-decide independents of N.H.]
The political geography of New Hampshire
The key to winning New Hampshire has been to amass a large lead in the prosperous and populous southeast region of the state.
Population
density
Household
income
One dot is
1,000 people
North
North
$53,817
Laconia
Concord
Central
Central
$61,977
Manchester
Keene
Southeast
$74,735
Southeast
The political geography of
New Hampshire
The key to winning New Hampshire has been to amass a large lead in the prosperous and populous southeast region of the state.
Population
density
One dot is
1,000 people
North
Laconia
Concord
Central
Manchester
Keene
Southeast
Household
income
North
$53,817
Central
$61,977
Southeast
$74,735
[How New Hampshire is a different ballgame than Iowa, in 2 data-stuffed graphs]
Who won the last contested primaries
Hillary Clinton won the north and southeast regions in 2008, and Mitt Romney won all three in 2012. The southeast accounted for about 60 percent of votes in both primaries.
2012 REPUBLICANS
2008 DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton
39%
Mitt Romney
39%
Barack
Obama
36%
Ron Paul
23%
Jon
Huntsman
17%
Other
Other
93
93
Laconia
Laconia
Concord
Concord
89
89
Manchester
Manchester
Keene
Keene
Hillary Clinton
Mitt Romney
Others
Others
North
North region
1,000
votes
Central
Central
Southeast
Southeast
Who won the last contested
primaries
Hillary Clinton won the north and southeast regions in 2008, and Mitt Romney won all three in 2012. The southeast accounted for about 60 percent of votes in both primaries.
2008 DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton
39%
Barack
Obama
36%
Other
93
Laconia
Concord
89
Manchester
Keene
Hillary Clinton
Others
North region
1,000
votes
Central
Southeast
2012 REPUBLICANS
Mitt Romney
39%
Ron Paul
23%
Jon
Huntsman
17%
Other
93
Laconia
Concord
89
Manchester
Keene
Mitt Romney
Others
North
Central
Southeast
Editor's picks
New Hampshire election results
GRAPHIC | What to watch for, past winners, the latest polls. The New Hampshire primary is Feb. 9, 2016.
Who’s winning 2016?
GRAPHIC | Need to catch up on the presidential candidates? Here is who's winning in polling, endorsements and money.