The 1-2 punch

Since 1980, every Republican and Democratic nominee has finished either first or second in New Hampshire, sometimes after stumbling in — or even skipping — Iowa.

IOWA

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Held steady

Al Gore, ’00

John Kerry, ’04

1

1

Dropped

Gained

2

2

Walter Mondale, ’84

Robert Dole, ’96

George W. Bush, ’00

Barack Obama, ’08

Mitt Romney, ’12

Ronald Reagan, ’80

3

George H.W. Bush, ’88

Michael Dukakis, ’88

John McCain, ’08

Skipped Iowa,

first in New Hampshire

4

Bill Clinton, ’92

You’re not in Iowa anymore

The first presidential primary of 2016 could resurrect or sink

campaigns. As in 2012, Iowans have favored

candidates,

evangelical

while voters in New Hampshire pick more

and

establishment

candidates.

libertarian

2012 GOP Primaries

IOWA

NEW HAMPSHIRE

1. Mitt Romney

2. Ron Paul

3. Jon Huntsman

4. Newt Gingrich

5. Rick Santorum

1. Rick Santorum

2. Mitt Romney

3. Ron Paul

4. Newt Gingrich

7. Jon Huntsman

The 1-2 punch

Since 1980, every Republican and Democratic nominee has finished either first or second in New Hampshire, sometimes after stumbling in — or even skipping — Iowa.

IOWA

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Held steady

Al Gore, ’00

John Kerry, ’04

1

1

Dropped

Gained

Walter

Mondale, ’84

Robert Dole, ’96

George

W. Bush, ’00

Barack Obama, ’08

Mitt Romney, ’12

Ronald Reagan, ’80

2

2

George H.W.

Bush, ’88

Michael

Dukakis, ’88

3

Bill Clinton, ’92

John McCain, ’08

Skipped Iowa,first

in New Hampshire

4

You’re not in Iowa anymore

The first presidential primary of 2016

could resurrect or sink campaigns. As in 2012,

Iowans have favored

while voters in New Hampshire pick more

 

candidates.

candidates,

evangelical

and

establishment

libertarian

2012 GOP Primaries

IOWA

NEW HAMPSHIRE

1. Mitt Romney

2. Ron Paul

3. Jon Huntsman

4. Newt Gingrich

5. Rick Santorum

1. Rick Santorum

2. Mitt Romney

3. Ron Paul

4. Newt Gingrich

7. Jon Huntsman

[Political spotlight swings to famously slow-to-decide independents of N.H.]

The political geography of New Hampshire

The key to winning New Hampshire has been to amass a large lead in the prosperous and populous southeast region of the state.

Population

density

Household

income

One dot is

1,000 people

North

North

$53,817

Laconia

Concord

Central

Central

$61,977

Manchester

Keene

Southeast

$74,735

Southeast

The political geography of

New Hampshire

The key to winning New Hampshire has been to amass a large lead in the prosperous and populous southeast region of the state.

Population

density

One dot is

1,000 people

North

Laconia

Concord

Central

Manchester

Keene

Southeast

Household

income

North

$53,817

Central

$61,977

Southeast

$74,735

[How New Hampshire is a different ballgame than Iowa, in 2 data-stuffed graphs]

Who won the last contested primaries

Hillary Clinton won the north and southeast regions in 2008, and Mitt Romney won all three in 2012. The southeast accounted for about 60 percent of votes in both primaries.

 

2012 REPUBLICANS

2008 DEMOCRATS

Hillary Clinton

39%

Mitt Romney

39%

Barack

Obama

36%

Ron Paul

23%

Jon

Huntsman

17%

Other

Other

93

93

Laconia

Laconia

Concord

Concord

89

89

Manchester

Manchester

Keene

Keene

Hillary Clinton

Mitt Romney

Others

Others

North

 

North region

1,000

votes

Central

Central

 

Southeast

Southeast

 

Who won the last contested

primaries

Hillary Clinton won the north and southeast regions in 2008, and Mitt Romney won all three in 2012. The southeast accounted for about 60 percent of votes in both primaries.

 

2008 DEMOCRATS

Hillary Clinton

39%

Barack

Obama

36%

Other

93

Laconia

Concord

89

Manchester

Keene

Hillary Clinton

Others

North region

1,000

votes

Central

 

Southeast

 

2012 REPUBLICANS

Mitt Romney

39%

Ron Paul

23%

Jon

Huntsman

17%

Other

93

Laconia

Concord

89

Manchester

Keene

Mitt Romney

Others

North

 

Central

Southeast

Editor's picks

New Hampshire election results

GRAPHIC | What to watch for, past winners, the latest polls. The New Hampshire primary is Feb. 9, 2016.

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GRAPHIC | Need to catch up on the presidential candidates? Here is who's winning in polling, endorsements and money.