In a tweet Friday morning, presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump announced Indiana Gov. Mike Pence will be his choice for vice president. Pence, who spent six terms in the House, checks some key boxes for Trump, who said he was looking for an experienced Washington operator to join the ticket. He also brings along a social conservative record that is expected to shore up Trump’s support within the party.

[ Donald Trump officially picks Mike Pence as his running mate]

In the end, Trump’s short list came down to three: Pence, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. With these options, Trump signaled he was more concerned with individual personalities and uniting the Republican base than with appealing to specific demographic groups or winning swing states.

 

Mike Pence

Indiana governor

Newt Gingrich

Former speaker of the House from Georgia

Chris Christie

New Jersey governor

Gender Male Male Male
Insider
Historic
Swing state
Southern region

Below is our estimation of the 35 people who we thought were most likely to be considered to complete the Republican ticket. Retired Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn was an additional name floated on Trump’s short list that we didn’t mention here.

Or, pick Hillary Clinton’s VP from our list of 27

Originally published June 8.

Shore up Republican establishment support? Appeal to independent voters? Reinforce a populist, outsider campaign narrative? These are the kind of questions presidential nominees weigh when choosing their vice presidential nominees.


Trump’s pick could ease the fears of establishment Republicans.

Trump emerged victorious from the primaries, but he needs to unite the party, including many Republicans who are wary of his brash style and inexperience.

19 Insiders

Completing the ticket with an establishment-friendly, known-commodity Republican could do wonders in pushing the doubters toward acceptance.

Kelly Ayotte

Senator from New Hampshire

Chris Christie

New Jersey governor

Bob Corker

Senator from Tennessee

Carly Fiorina

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO from California

Rudy Giuliani

Former New York City mayor

Nikki Haley

South Carolina governor

Bill Haslam

Tennesee governor

Bobby Jindal

Former Louisiana governor

John Kasich

Ohio governor

Mia Love

Congresswoman from Utah

Susana Martinez

New Mexico governor

Mike Pence

Indiana governor

Rob Portman

Senator from Ohio

Condoleezza Rice

Former secretary of state from California

Marco Rubio

Senator from Florida

Paul Ryan

Speaker of the House from Wisconsin

Brian Sandoval

Nevada governor

John Thune

Senator from South Dakota

Scott Walker

Wisconsin governor

16 Outsiders/Tea Partiers

An outsider would shake up the race and reinforce Trump’s message that politics as usual is not going to fly.

Marsha Blackburn

Congresswoman from Tennessee

Jan Brewer

Former Arizona governor

Ben Carson

Neurosurgeon from Florida

Ted Cruz

Senator from Texas

Joni Ernst

Senator from Iowa

Mary Fallin

Oklahoma governor

Newt Gingrich

Former speaker of the House from Georgia

Mike Huckabee

Former Arkansas governor

Steve King

Congressman from Iowa

Sarah Palin

Former Alaska governor

Rick Perry

Former Texas governor

David Petraeus

Former CIA director, Army general from Virginia

Joe Scarborough

Former congressman from Florida, MSNBC host

Rick Scott

Florida governor

Jeff Sessions

Senator from Alabama

Ivanka Trump

Mogul from New York

In an interview with The Washington Post in April, Trump said he was looking for “somebody that can walk into the Senate and who’s been friendly with these guys for 25 years, and people for 25 years. And can get things done. So I would 95 percent see myself picking a political person as opposed to somebody from the outside.” Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker would have fit the Senate-insider bill, but he removed himself from consideration on July 6.

[ Corker withdraws as potential Trump running mate]

Of course, there is still a chance his thinking on this could change. For instance, Trump could decide to go with a military figure such as David Petraeus. In May, The Fix’s Philip Bump made a surprisingly persusaive case for Trump to choose his daughter Ivanka.

Trump’s pick could improve his appeal among certain demographics.

For Trump to have any chance at winning in November, he’ll need to do something to mitigate his high unfavorability among Hispanic voters and women. Picking a woman could also make Clinton’s pitch for putting the first woman in the White House less effective.

17 Historic firsts

Picking a female or minority running mate could help Trump with those groups.

Kelly Ayotte

Senator from New Hampshire

Marsha Blackburn

Congresswoman from Tennessee

Jan Brewer

Former Arizona governor

Ben Carson

Neurosurgeon from Florida

Ted Cruz

Senator from Texas

Joni Ernst

Senator from Iowa

Mary Fallin

Oklahoma governor

Carly Fiorina

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO from California

Nikki Haley

South Carolina governor

Bobby Jindal

Former Louisiana governor

Mia Love

Congresswoman from Utah

Susana Martinez

New Mexico governor

Sarah Palin

Former Alaska governor

Condoleezza Rice

Former secretary of state from California

Marco Rubio

Senator from Florida

Brian Sandoval

Nevada governor

Ivanka Trump

Mogul from New York

18 Others

Then again, Trump may decide not to prioritize demographics in his decision.

Chris Christie

New Jersey governor

Bob Corker

Senator from Tennessee

Newt Gingrich

Former speaker of the House from Georgia

Rudy Giuliani

Former New York City mayor

Bill Haslam

Tennesee governor

Mike Huckabee

Former Arkansas governor

John Kasich

Ohio governor

Steve King

Congressman from Iowa

Mike Pence

Indiana governor

Rick Perry

Former Texas governor

David Petraeus

Former CIA director, Army general from Virginia

Rob Portman

Senator from Ohio

Paul Ryan

Speaker of the House from Wisconsin

Joe Scarborough

Former congressman from Florida, MSNBC host

Rick Scott

Florida governor

Jeff Sessions

Senator from Alabama

John Thune

Senator from South Dakota

Scott Walker

Wisconsin governor

Some potential obstacles for Trump: Govs. Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Susana Martinez of New Mexico have been outspoken critics of his, and it’s unclear whether they would even be open to consideration.

[ Trump says remarks about federal judge’s Mexican heritage were ‘misconstrued’]

With the Senate’s balance of power very much in play, plucking certain senators from their seats could mean putting seats in play and possibly handing over Senate control. Sen. Kelly Ayotte is locked in a contentious, must-win Senate battle for Republicans in New Hampshire. An effort is underway to coax Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida into running for reelection after polls showed chances of Republicans losing that seat, too.

Trump’s pick could also be influenced by geographic concerns.

Trump has said he plans to turn industrial, and typically blue, Midwestern states red with his anti-free-trade message. He will also need to consider how important it is to choose someone from a swing state, but the jury seems to be out on whether a VP pick from such a place helps deliver that state’s electoral votes or whether it matters at all.

4 Northeasterners

Kelly Ayotte

Senator from New Hampshire

Chris Christie

New Jersey governor

Rudy Giuliani

Former New York City mayor

Ivanka Trump

Mogul from New York

16 Southerners

Marsha Blackburn

Congresswoman from Tennessee

Ben Carson

Neurosurgeon from Florida

Bob Corker

Senator from Tennessee

Ted Cruz

Senator from Texas

Mary Fallin

Oklahoma governor

Newt Gingrich

Former speaker of the House from Georgia

Nikki Haley

South Carolina governor

Bill Haslam

Tennesee governor

Mike Huckabee

Former Arkansas governor

Bobby Jindal

Former Louisiana governor

Rick Perry

Former Texas governor

David Petraeus

Former CIA director, Army general from Virginia

Marco Rubio

Senator from Florida

Joe Scarborough

Former congressman from Florida, MSNBC host

Rick Scott

Florida governor

Jeff Sessions

Senator from Alabama

7 Midwesterners

Joni Ernst

Senator from Iowa

John Kasich

Ohio governor

Steve King

Congressman from Iowa

Mike Pence

Indiana governor

Rob Portman

Senator from Ohio

Paul Ryan

Speaker of the House from Wisconsin

Scott Walker

Wisconsin governor

8 Westerners

Jan Brewer

Former Arizona governor

Carly Fiorina

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO from California

Mia Love

Congresswoman from Utah

Susana Martinez

New Mexico governor

Sarah Palin

Former Alaska governor

Condoleezza Rice

Former secretary of state from California

Brian Sandoval

Nevada governor

John Thune

Senator from South Dakota

By picking Giuliani as his VP, Trump could effectively forfeit the state of New York, where both reside. The Constitution says a presidential ticket can’t win the electoral votes of a state where both candidates reside (though one of them could change their residency, as then-Texas resident Dick Cheney did in 2000). This likely wouldn’t matter to Trump, though, as Republicans are unlikely to compete for New York. With two New Yorkers leading the major party tickets, a running mate from elsewhere is likely.

Popular Ohio Gov. John Kasich would seem an obvious choice, especially given that he leads perhaps the most important swing state for Republicans, but a spokesman told the New York Times, “No chance.” Other swing-state folks in the mix include Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa and Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

The Fix says ...

Here is the most recent ranking of Trump’s likely VP choices, as seen by Fix boss Chris Cillizza:

#1

Newt Gingrich

Former speaker of the House from Georgia

“Gingrich's weaknesses are similar to Trump's — he veers off message often, his personal life has been complicated and his ego is, well, massive — but Gingrich's recent decision to change his position on trade — he helped pass NAFTA but now says he supports Trump's more protectionist approach — suggests he knows he's very much in the running and wants to make clear he very much wants the job.”

#2

Chris Christie

New Jersey governor

“Christie has been by Trump's side more than any other politician and, according to reporting on their relationship, is one of the few people who has the presumptive Republican presidential nominee's ear.”

#3

Mike Pence

Indiana governor

“Pence is someone with strong ties to social conservatives, a voting bloc Trump continues to struggle to attract, and has spent time not only in Congress but also as a member of GOP leadership.”

#4

Mary Fallin

Oklahoma governor

“She has spent time in office in Washington (she served in the House) and outside of it (she was elected governor in 2010) and, perhaps most importantly, she is a prominent female conservative.”

#5

Jeff Sessions

Senator from Alabama

“Sessions has been the leading voice of hard-line conservatives on immigration for quite some time and found common cause with Trump on the issue, even becoming the first senator to endorse Trump.”

Read the full July 2 post here.

Graphic first published June 8, 2016. The graphic has been updated to reflect constitutional rules on presidential tickets with candidates from the same state. In an earlier version of the graphic, Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s title was mislabeled in some places. She is a Senator. Sources: Photos from Associated Press, Washington Post file photos, Getty Images, Reuters, European Pressphoto Agency and Agence France-Presse via Getty Images.

Or, pick Hillary Clinton’s vice president

Populist attack dog? Barrier-breaking minority? Now that Clinton has locked up the Democratic nomination, narrow down a list of her potential VPs.
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