In a tweet Friday morning, presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump announced Indiana Gov. Mike Pence will be his choice for vice president. Pence, who spent six terms in the House, checks some key boxes for Trump, who said he was looking for an experienced Washington operator to join the ticket. He also brings along a social conservative record that is expected to shore up Trump’s support within the party.
[ Donald Trump officially picks Mike Pence as his running mate]
In the end, Trump’s short list came down to three: Pence, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. With these options, Trump signaled he was more concerned with individual personalities and uniting the Republican base than with appealing to specific demographic groups or winning swing states.
Mike Pence Indiana governor |
Newt Gingrich Former speaker of the House from Georgia |
Chris Christie New Jersey governor |
|
---|---|---|---|
Gender | Male | Male | Male |
Insider | |||
Historic | |||
Swing state | |||
Southern region |
Below is our estimation of the 35 people who we thought were most likely to be considered to complete the Republican ticket. Retired Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn was an additional name floated on Trump’s short list that we didn’t mention here.
Originally published June 8.
Shore up Republican establishment support? Appeal to independent voters? Reinforce a populist, outsider campaign narrative? These are the kind of questions presidential nominees weigh when choosing their vice presidential nominees.
Trump’s pick could ease the fears of establishment Republicans.
Trump emerged victorious from the primaries, but he needs to unite the party, including many Republicans who are wary of his brash style and inexperience.
19 Insiders
Completing the ticket with an establishment-friendly, known-commodity Republican could do wonders in pushing the doubters toward acceptance.
Kelly Ayotte
Senator from New Hampshire
Chris Christie
New Jersey governor
Bob Corker
Senator from Tennessee
Carly Fiorina
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO from California
Rudy Giuliani
Former New York City mayor
Nikki Haley
South Carolina governor
Bill Haslam
Tennesee governor
Bobby Jindal
Former Louisiana governor
John Kasich
Ohio governor
Mia Love
Congresswoman from Utah
Susana Martinez
New Mexico governor
Mike Pence
Indiana governor
Rob Portman
Senator from Ohio
Condoleezza Rice
Former secretary of state from California
Marco Rubio
Senator from Florida
Paul Ryan
Speaker of the House from Wisconsin
Brian Sandoval
Nevada governor
John Thune
Senator from South Dakota
Scott Walker
Wisconsin governor
16 Outsiders/Tea Partiers
An outsider would shake up the race and reinforce Trump’s message that politics as usual is not going to fly.
Marsha Blackburn
Congresswoman from Tennessee
Jan Brewer
Former Arizona governor
Ben Carson
Neurosurgeon from Florida
Ted Cruz
Senator from Texas
Joni Ernst
Senator from Iowa
Mary Fallin
Oklahoma governor
Newt Gingrich
Former speaker of the House from Georgia
Mike Huckabee
Former Arkansas governor
Steve King
Congressman from Iowa
Sarah Palin
Former Alaska governor
Rick Perry
Former Texas governor
David Petraeus
Former CIA director, Army general from Virginia
Joe Scarborough
Former congressman from Florida, MSNBC host
Rick Scott
Florida governor
Jeff Sessions
Senator from Alabama
Ivanka Trump
Mogul from New York
In an interview with The Washington Post in April, Trump said he was looking for “somebody that can walk into the Senate and who’s been friendly with these guys for 25 years, and people for 25 years. And can get things done. So I would 95 percent see myself picking a political person as opposed to somebody from the outside.” Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker would have fit the Senate-insider bill, but he removed himself from consideration on July 6.
[ Corker withdraws as potential Trump running mate]
Of course, there is still a chance his thinking on this could change. For instance, Trump could decide to go with a military figure such as David Petraeus. In May, The Fix’s Philip Bump made a surprisingly persusaive case for Trump to choose his daughter Ivanka.
Trump’s pick could improve his appeal among certain demographics.
For Trump to have any chance at winning in November, he’ll need to do something to mitigate his high unfavorability among Hispanic voters and women. Picking a woman could also make Clinton’s pitch for putting the first woman in the White House less effective.
17 Historic firsts
Picking a female or minority running mate could help Trump with those groups.
Kelly Ayotte
Senator from New Hampshire
Marsha Blackburn
Congresswoman from Tennessee
Jan Brewer
Former Arizona governor
Ben Carson
Neurosurgeon from Florida
Ted Cruz
Senator from Texas
Joni Ernst
Senator from Iowa
Mary Fallin
Oklahoma governor
Carly Fiorina
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO from California
Nikki Haley
South Carolina governor
Bobby Jindal
Former Louisiana governor
Mia Love
Congresswoman from Utah
Susana Martinez
New Mexico governor
Sarah Palin
Former Alaska governor
Condoleezza Rice
Former secretary of state from California
Marco Rubio
Senator from Florida
Brian Sandoval
Nevada governor
Ivanka Trump
Mogul from New York
18 Others
Then again, Trump may decide not to prioritize demographics in his decision.
Chris Christie
New Jersey governor
Bob Corker
Senator from Tennessee
Newt Gingrich
Former speaker of the House from Georgia
Rudy Giuliani
Former New York City mayor
Bill Haslam
Tennesee governor
Mike Huckabee
Former Arkansas governor
John Kasich
Ohio governor
Steve King
Congressman from Iowa
Mike Pence
Indiana governor
Rick Perry
Former Texas governor
David Petraeus
Former CIA director, Army general from Virginia
Rob Portman
Senator from Ohio
Paul Ryan
Speaker of the House from Wisconsin
Joe Scarborough
Former congressman from Florida, MSNBC host
Rick Scott
Florida governor
Jeff Sessions
Senator from Alabama
John Thune
Senator from South Dakota
Scott Walker
Wisconsin governor
Some potential obstacles for Trump: Govs. Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Susana Martinez of New Mexico have been outspoken critics of his, and it’s unclear whether they would even be open to consideration.
[ Trump says remarks about federal judge’s Mexican heritage were ‘misconstrued’]
With the Senate’s balance of power very much in play, plucking certain senators from their seats could mean putting seats in play and possibly handing over Senate control. Sen. Kelly Ayotte is locked in a contentious, must-win Senate battle for Republicans in New Hampshire. An effort is underway to coax Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida into running for reelection after polls showed chances of Republicans losing that seat, too.
Trump’s pick could also be influenced by geographic concerns.
Trump has said he plans to turn industrial, and typically blue, Midwestern states red with his anti-free-trade message. He will also need to consider how important it is to choose someone from a swing state, but the jury seems to be out on whether a VP pick from such a place helps deliver that state’s electoral votes or whether it matters at all.
4 Northeasterners
Kelly Ayotte
Senator from New Hampshire
Chris Christie
New Jersey governor
Rudy Giuliani
Former New York City mayor
Ivanka Trump
Mogul from New York
16 Southerners
Marsha Blackburn
Congresswoman from Tennessee
Ben Carson
Neurosurgeon from Florida
Bob Corker
Senator from Tennessee
Ted Cruz
Senator from Texas
Mary Fallin
Oklahoma governor
Newt Gingrich
Former speaker of the House from Georgia
Nikki Haley
South Carolina governor
Bill Haslam
Tennesee governor
Mike Huckabee
Former Arkansas governor
Bobby Jindal
Former Louisiana governor
Rick Perry
Former Texas governor
David Petraeus
Former CIA director, Army general from Virginia
Marco Rubio
Senator from Florida
Joe Scarborough
Former congressman from Florida, MSNBC host
Rick Scott
Florida governor
Jeff Sessions
Senator from Alabama
7 Midwesterners
Joni Ernst
Senator from Iowa
John Kasich
Ohio governor
Steve King
Congressman from Iowa
Mike Pence
Indiana governor
Rob Portman
Senator from Ohio
Paul Ryan
Speaker of the House from Wisconsin
Scott Walker
Wisconsin governor
8 Westerners
Jan Brewer
Former Arizona governor
Carly Fiorina
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO from California
Mia Love
Congresswoman from Utah
Susana Martinez
New Mexico governor
Sarah Palin
Former Alaska governor
Condoleezza Rice
Former secretary of state from California
Brian Sandoval
Nevada governor
John Thune
Senator from South Dakota
By picking Giuliani as his VP, Trump could effectively forfeit the state of New York, where both reside. The Constitution says a presidential ticket can’t win the electoral votes of a state where both candidates reside (though one of them could change their residency, as then-Texas resident Dick Cheney did in 2000). This likely wouldn’t matter to Trump, though, as Republicans are unlikely to compete for New York. With two New Yorkers leading the major party tickets, a running mate from elsewhere is likely.
Popular Ohio Gov. John Kasich would seem an obvious choice, especially given that he leads perhaps the most important swing state for Republicans, but a spokesman told the New York Times, “No chance.” Other swing-state folks in the mix include Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa and Florida Gov. Rick Scott.
The Fix says ...
Here is the most recent ranking of Trump’s likely VP choices, as seen by Fix boss Chris Cillizza:
Newt Gingrich
Former speaker of the House from Georgia
“Gingrich's weaknesses are similar to Trump's — he veers off message often, his personal life has been complicated and his ego is, well, massive — but Gingrich's recent decision to change his position on trade — he helped pass NAFTA but now says he supports Trump's more protectionist approach — suggests he knows he's very much in the running and wants to make clear he very much wants the job.”
Chris Christie
New Jersey governor
“Christie has been by Trump's side more than any other politician and, according to reporting on their relationship, is one of the few people who has the presumptive Republican presidential nominee's ear.”
Mike Pence
Indiana governor
“Pence is someone with strong ties to social conservatives, a voting bloc Trump continues to struggle to attract, and has spent time not only in Congress but also as a member of GOP leadership.”
Mary Fallin
Oklahoma governor
“She has spent time in office in Washington (she served in the House) and outside of it (she was elected governor in 2010) and, perhaps most importantly, she is a prominent female conservative.”
Jeff Sessions
Senator from Alabama
“Sessions has been the leading voice of hard-line conservatives on immigration for quite some time and found common cause with Trump on the issue, even becoming the first senator to endorse Trump.”
Graphic first published June 8, 2016. The graphic has been updated to reflect constitutional rules on presidential tickets with candidates from the same state. In an earlier version of the graphic, Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s title was mislabeled in some places. She is a Senator. Sources: Photos from Associated Press, Washington Post file photos, Getty Images, Reuters, European Pressphoto Agency and Agence France-Presse via Getty Images.
Or, pick Hillary Clinton’s vice president
Populist attack dog? Barrier-breaking minority? Now that Clinton has locked up the Democratic nomination, narrow down a list of her potential VPs.
See the graphic
More stories
Where Clinton and Trump stand on the issues
Compare their positions on the year’s biggest issues.
Many in the GOP were wary of Trump. They’re coming around.
Here’s where a selection of prominent GOPers fell before and where they stand now.