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7:50 p.m. — Severe thunderstorm watch canceled

The National Weather Service has canceled the severe thunderstorm watch for the D.C. area. A new <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0395.html" target=_blank>severe thunderstorm watch</a>, until 1 a.m., includes St. Mary’s County and toward points south and east out to the Eastern Shore.

7:15 p.m. — Mostly calm around D.C. area for now

Storms thus far have tracked well to the north of D.C. (around Baltimore and north of Frederick) and well to the south (south of Fredericksburg). In other words, what we like to call a D.C. split. That can happen in hit-or-miss situations such as the one we were expecting for this late afternoon into evening.

Most signs now point to only isolated activity this evening. Doesn’t means a severe storm won’t pop up, but things are calm for now. We’ll update this post if anything of note develops.

5:35 p.m. — Storm chances continue, but coverage may be limited

The strongest storms in the broader region are in the area surrounding Charlottesville, to as close as Madison County southwest of Culpeper. Multiple reports of 1 to 1.5 inch hail have been logged by the Weather Service, as have several instances of trees and wires down from strong winds.

Although it has been quieter locally, <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1287.html" target=_blank>the risk of storms continues</a>.

Additional storms may develop in or closer to the D.C. metro area in the next few hours, but latest observations and model data indicates storm coverage this evening may lean toward isolated rather than scattered or numerous. That said, any storms that do develop still have the potential to be intense.

2:25 p.m. — Weather Service issues thunderstorm watch for the area until late evening.

A <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0392.html" target=_blank>severe thunderstorm watch</a> has been issued by the National Weather Service for the entire region (except Calvert and St. Mary’s counties) until 9 p.m. due to the potential for scattered damaging wind gusts to near 65 mph and isolated large hail to 1.5 inches in diameter. This was expected and means that severe storms are possible later today. A severe thunderstorm warning is issued for localized areas when a storm is imminent or occurring.

Below is CWG’s detailed forecast...

A broken line of strong to severe storms is likely to sweep across D.C., Maryland and Northern Virginia from west to east late Monday afternoon or evening. Given a slow start to the 2023 storm season, it wouldn’t take much for Monday to contend for our biggest storm day so far this year. But while any storms that come through could be quite powerful, they could end up hit-or-miss in parts of the area.

The National Weather Service’s <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html" target=_blank>Storm Prediction Center has placed</a> most of the immediate D.C. area and points east under a Level 3 of 5 severe thunderstorm risk. A Level 2 of 5 risk covers the far-west and northwest suburbs.

Storms are expected to erupt to the west of the D.C. area by midafternoon before gathering and moving eastward in the late afternoon through the evening. The best chance of scattered storms in the immediate area could wait until after 5 or 6 p.m., perhaps impacting the latter part of the commute home or holding off until after. A weaker isolated shower or storm is possible as soon as early to midafternoon.

The main severe storm threats are scattered instances of damaging wind gusts near or over 60 mph and some hail. Given a very moist atmosphere, some heavy rain is also a good bet. In a few locations, that could lead to flash or urban flooding. And dangerous lightning is possible with any storm.

Going into this setup, <a href="http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=line&opt=wfo&station=LWX&state=IA&limit=yes&c=svrtor&phenomena=SV&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2023&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png" target=_blank>only 54 severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings</a> have been issued this year by local Weather Service offices. That’s about one quarter of last year’s 216 warnings through the same period, and the fewest to date since 1999, when only 43 were issued.

We may also see another round of storms Tuesday. It’s possible Tuesday’s storms end up more numerous around the DMV than Monday’s and arrive earlier in the afternoon, but they also might not be as intense.

Storm timing: 4 to 10 p.m. Monday, far west to far southeast, with an isolated shower/storm possible earlier. 6 to 10 p.m. may end up the best chance of storms around the Beltway and to the east. Storms generally move west to east.

Storm coverage: Scattered. Better odds of more numerous storms may be south and east of Interstate 95.

Main storm threats: Damaging wind gusts, hail, torrential downpours and frequent lightning.

Bottom line: Typical strong to severe thunderstorm setup for the region; some spots could get hit and others missed. Any storms that do come through could pack a punch.

For several days, forecasters have been monitoring the potential of severe storms Monday. While certain ingredients for severe storms are present, others are somewhat lacking. Let’s look closer at the general setup and then the likely evolution of events later Monday.

The image below shows the forecast weather map at 2 p.m. Monday. The maroon-shaded region highlights the location of possible severe weather, by about 7-8 p.m. in the immediate D.C. area. At low levels of the atmosphere, a low-pressure area (red “L”) with associated warm and cold fronts is approaching the Appalachians from the Great Lakes region.

Ahead of this low pressure, near-surface winds from the south and southwest usher in hot and humid air, with dew points running around 70 degrees, or a level that can feel truly uncomfortable. Adding in strong June sunshine and a pocket of cooler air aloft, which helps make the atmosphere unstable, the stage could be set for strong to severe storms to erupt.

As the frontal zone approaches, it will begin to force low-level air to converge and lift upward. At first, the strongest lift will focus along the crest of the Appalachians, where storms should initiate early in the afternoon.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a potent wave of energy and cold air approaches from the west. A belt of strong wind wrapping around the southern flank of this feature enhances the wind shear (strengthening of winds with altitude). This type of shear, in which winds intensify with altitude to a modest degree but remain from the same direction, helps storm cells clump into larger clusters called multi-cells. Such storms can sometimes have long-lived updrafts and downdrafts that produce damaging winds, but it’s not typically the type of setup that favors a widespread, dangerous tornado day.

As the image below shows, the pocket of strongest winds aloft probably remains south of the D.C. region, focusing over North Carolina. This is where the most severe type of thunderstorm, including rotating supercells, may focus.

Locally, there is favorable instability and shear for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Here are a few key details:

First: A lot of the buoyant energy in storm updrafts will concentrate in the middle regions of the cloud layer, where supercooled water droplets and ice particles develop. This favors the growth of hail — near or a bit past 1 inch in diameter — in addition to the generation of copious lightning.

Second: Several factors may conspire to generate intense downdrafts in a few spots but probably not in a widespread manner. Pockets of wind damage, in the form of downbursts, are a good bet in localized swaths where wind gusts could briefly reach 60 to 70 mph.

Third: Storm coverage and timing is a bit tricky to pin down. It’s likely that not everyone will experience thunderstorms. The morning weather models suggest a broken to scattered pattern of storm coverage, as shown in the simulated radar image at 6 p.m. Monday below.

It appears likely that the Weather Service will issue a severe thunderstorm watch for our region later Monday, which means that severe thunderstorms are possible but not necessarily imminent.

As such, it is prudent to be prepared in case severe thunderstorm warnings are issued Monday afternoon into the early evening. A warning is issued for a localized area where a severe thunderstorm is imminent or already occurring. We will be monitoring conditions and will issue updates at the top of this story as necessary.

Another storm threat presents itself Tuesday. As a slow-moving area of very cold air aloft moves closer to the D.C. area, it is reasonable to expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the region again.

There is some chance that Tuesday’s storms arrive earlier and are more numerous but not quite as intense, although a few could still turn severe. Tuesday’s severe weather threats would seemingly lean more toward hail and isolated strong winds, with the potential for brief heavy rain and lightning, as well.

Dan Stillman contributed to this report.

Jeffrey Halverson, a contributor to The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang, teaches meteorology at the University of Maryland Baltimore County.

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Ian Livingston is a forecaster/photographer and information lead for the Capital Weather Gang. By day, Ian is a defense and national security researcher at a D.C. think tank.

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