THE MORNING PLUM:
So this revelation, if true, would directly implicate Trump himself in an effort to conspire with a foreign power to tip the election to him, and a subsequent effort to cover that up. We already know that Trump helped dictate a statement lying to America about the real purpose of the meeting, and, if Cohen is right, the coverup would also include falsely denying not just knowledge of the meeting, but also his approval of it.
But the importance of this story may not lie in what Cohen is willing to say about Trump’s alleged knowledge of this meeting. Rather, its real significance may be that it signals a further unraveling of the Cohen-Trump relationship that could lead Cohen to share previously undisclosed information about other matters related to Trump and Russia that still remain shrouded in mystery.
There are several reasons Cohen’s willingness to testify to Trump’s alleged awareness may not be significant. First, it might not be true: We should regard everything that comes out of this supremely oily character’s mouth with extreme skepticism. Second, if it is true, special counsel Robert S. Mueller III can verify it with other, less-supremely-oily sources, and indeed (again, if it is true) he probably already has.
Note that CNN’s story says this:
Cohen alleges that he was present, along with several others, when Trump was informed of the Russians’ offer by Trump Jr. By Cohen’s account, Trump approved going ahead with the meeting with the Russians, according to sources.
This says Trump knew of and approved the meeting, which represents another order of implication entirely. That said, those “several others” can verify this story if it is true. Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani says all these others claim this never happened. This suggests that even Trump’s camp acknowledges there was some sort of conversation involving Cohen, Trump, and these “several others.”
So what this really means is that Cohen’s claim is verifiable either way. We don’t have to take Cohen’s word for it. We can wait to learn who these “others” are; what they claim happened; and whether they told Mueller of it (if they were willing to do this, it probably has happened already). What’s more, we should wait to see whether Cohen is actually willing to say all this to Mueller under oath. I’d suggest reserving judgment until these things happen.
But beyond this, if Cohen is really willing to start talking a lot more about Trump’s relationship with Russia, that could prove significant in other ways.
An opening salvo from Cohen?
As you’ll recall, McClatchy reported back in April that Mueller has evidence that Cohen secretly traveled to Prague in the summer of 2016. Cohen has adamantly denied this, but if it were true, it would lend support to the claim in the so-called Steele dossier, which reported on extensive Trump-Russia ties, that this meeting did happen. The reason this matters: The Steele dossier claimed Cohen held this meeting in Prague with Russian officials, to strategize over how to limit the “damage” from, among other things, Trump adviser Carter Page’s meetings with Russians, and more broadly, to “prevent the full details of TRUMP’s relationship with Russia being exposed.”
Now, to be clear, we have no idea whether that Prague meeting did actually happen. But the point, as Andrew Prokop has explained, is that Cohen’s denial of this meeting has been central to the Trump camp’s efforts to undermine the Steele dossier’s broader credibility. If Cohen is really talking more about Trump and Russia now, he might be willing to, shall we say, revisit his claims about the Steele dossier and, more broadly, get into other Trump-Russia murkiness that we don’t know about. And as Adam Davidson has noted, Cohen reportedly has extensive knowledge of Trump’s pre-White House international dealings.
“Cohen may have other things to say about the Trump-Russia connection beyond the Trump Tower meeting,” Bob Bauer, the former White House counsel under President Barack Obama, told me. “What else does he know about the Trump campaign’s planning to extract maximum benefit from the Russians? This is just the opening salvo.”
To reiterate, everything Cohen says must be viewed with extreme skepticism. But you can see a scenario in which Cohen decides that his only remaining play is to start spilling more about what he knows about Trump and Russia, and maybe — just maybe — even to tell the truth about it. Stranger things have happened.
* HUNDREDS OF CHILDREN STILL SEPARATED: The government says it has reunited 1,442 children with their parents after separations under Trump’s “zero tolerance” policy. But the court-imposed reunification deadline has passed, and there’s still this:
But 711 children remain in government shelters because their parents have criminal records, their cases remain under review or the parents are no longer in the United States, officials said. The latter group includes 431 parents.
Officials say reunification is on track. But let’s not forget that this didn’t have to happen: The whole point was to threaten this cruel outcome to dissuade border crossers, desperate refugees included.
* PROSECUTORS TARGET TOP TRUMP ORGANIZATION OFFICIAL: The New York Times reports that federal prosecutors looking at Michael Cohen (separately from the Mueller probe) want to interview Trump Organization Chief Financial Officer Allen Weisselberg:
The development suggests that federal prosecutors … are scrutinizing at least some financial dealings of the Trump family business … [It] set off alarm bells within the Trump Organization … because of the scope of Mr. Weisselberg’s responsibilities. He has handled its finances for decades … has managed the president’s private trust and has at times reviewed the Trump presidential campaign’s books.
Have I mentioned that no one has any idea where all this is going? For more on who Weisselberg is and the significance of him being targeted, see this Timothy L. O’Brien piece.
* TRUMP’S TAXPAYER-FUNDED CAMPAIGN EVENT: The Post reports that on Trump’s taxpayer-funded trip to Illinois, he openly advocated for two Republican congressional candidates. There was also this bonus Trump lie:
As he had done in previous public speeches, Trump falsely claimed that he won the women’s vote against Hillary Clinton in 2016. He won the white women’s vote, according to exit polling, but he lost the overall women’s vote to Clinton, with 54 percent of women supporting the Democrat and 41 percent backing him.
The thing about this claim — conflating the white women’s vote with the overall women’s vote — is that Trump isn’t even pretending to be the president for all Americans.
* SUBURBAN WHITE WOMEN TURN ON TRUMP: A new Axios-SurveyMonkey poll digs into attitudes toward Trump among various voter subgroups. Note these numbers among suburban white women, who are generally divided between the two parties:
Most give … Trump a negative rating — 44% approve, 55% disapprove — for the way he is handling his job as president. Nearly half (45%) strongly disapprove. They favor the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district over the Republican candidate by a similar margin (48% to 40%).
And they are more likely than voters overall to say they are registered to vote. The backlash to Trump among this group appears to be holding, which bodes well for Democrats this fall.
* GOP FACES BRUTAL HOUSE MAP: The Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman offers a new assessment of the House map Republicans face this fall:
“Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control. A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930. … eight are in districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and an additional 13 are in districts where President Trump received less than 55 percent. … since 1992, in situations when a president’s party was stuck defending an open seat two years after the president failed to carry it, that party has batted zero for 23 keeping it in their column.”
These are just the open seats. There are dozens of other seats that are either Toss Ups or Lean Republican and are very much in play.
* BEWARE THE SPIN ON TODAY’S GDP NUMBERS: Today very robust second quarter GDP numbers are expected to be released. Ben Casselman has a good explainer on why we shouldn’t get too excited by them:
Even a number starting with a four, though, will almost certainly be misleading. Several one-time factors — including a surge in exports tied, at least in part, to Mr. Trump’s trade policies — probably combined to pump up growth in the second quarter. Those effects won’t last, and economists expect growth to slow in the second half of the year. Pretty much no one outside the White House thinks a growth rate of 4 percent is sustainable in the long term.
That surge in exports may be due to foreign buyers rushing to “stock up on American goods before tariffs took effect.” Trump will claim this shows his awesome policies are working, though.
* TRUMP’S TRADE WAR PRODUCES ‘FOOL’S GOLD’: Politico adds that Trump’s trade war may be fueling this short term GDP bump, but it will prove “fool’s gold” and will fall back to earth:
Economists warn that Trump’s trade war sped up U.S. exports in the second quarter as China and other countries rushed to snap up American soybeans and other products ahead of impending tariffs, lifting growth … And as Trump continues to argue that the strong economy and stock market offer him leeway to press his aggressive approach, his trade battles could wind up slowing an economy that is among the GOP’s strongest selling points to voters.
This will be easy for Trump to deal with. The good GDP numbers are real, and the slower ones that follow will be rigged.
