President Trump declared that the United States would leave the Paris climate agreement, following months of infighting among Trump’s staff that left the world in suspense. He said he hopes to negotiate a similar deal that is more favorable to the U.S.
This move is one of several Obama-era environmental milestones that Trump has dismantled. And all the while, a new study shows global temperatures might be rising faster than expected.
Leaving the agreement displaces the U.S. from a stance of global leadership and leaves it out of an agreement that includes every other country in the world. Nicaragua — which originally refused to join because the Paris Agreement didn’t go far enough — joined the agreement on Oct. 23, 2017. And Syria, which was also not part of the initial agreement, announced its intention to join on Nov. 7, 2017.Even countries such as Liberia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which are among the poorest in the world and were struggling with an Ebola epidemic at the time, have signed on.
Who’s in and who’s out of the
Paris agreement, by total
greenhouse gas emissions
Developed country
Developing country
NOT PART OF PARIS AGREEMENT
1 country
United States
6.3M
President Trump plans to back out of the Paris Agreement, which puts the U.S. into this group
PART OF PARIS AGREEMENT
196 parties
194 countries + E.U. +
Palestinian Authority
China
12.5M
India
Brazil
3M
3M
Russia
Japan
Canada
2.8M
1.5M
1M
Dem. Rep.
Congo
Germany
Indonesia
Australia
950K
800K
760K
780K
South
Korea
Mexico
Iran
Bolivia
U.K.
620K
590K
670K
650K
660K
as of 2007
Saudi
Arabia
South
Africa
Central
African Rep.
Burma
France
530K
520K
510K
500K
500K
Other 175 parties that are
part of agreement
13M
Note: The Vatican is not officially part of the Paris agreement, but Pope Francis has publicly supported it. Some of these parties are part of the agreement but have not formally ratified it. They are already complying and moving toward ratification. Emissions data is from the World Bank as of 2012, the latest available year, unless otherwise noted. Data is not available for some countries after 2000.
Who’s in and who’s out of the Paris agreement,
by total greenhouse gas emissions
Developed country
Developing country
PART OF PARIS AGREEMENT
NOT PART OF AGREEMENT
196 parties
1 country
194 countries + E.U. + Palestinian Authority
United States
China
6.3M
12.5M
kilotons of CO2-equivalent
total greenhouse
gas emissions
President Trump plans to back out of the Paris Agreement, which puts the U.S. into this group
India
Brazil
3M
3M
Canada
Russia
Japan
1M
2.8M
1.5M
Dem. Rep.
Congo
Indonesia
Germany
Australia
780K
800K
950K
760K
Iran
South
Korea
Bolivia
Mexico
650K
620K
660K
as of 2007
670K
Central
African Rep.
Saudi
Arabia
South
Africa
U.K.
Burma
510K
520K
500K
590K
530K
Thailand
Italy
Turkey
Sudan
France
440K
480K
450K
490K
500K
Other 171 parties that are
part of agreement
11M
Note: The Vatican is not officially part of the Paris agreement, but Pope Francis has publicly supported it. Some of these parties are part of the agreement but have not formally ratified it. They are already complying and moving toward ratification. Emissions data is from the World Bank as of 2012, the latest available year, unless otherwise noted. Data is not available for some countries after 2000.
Who’s in and who’s out of the Paris agreement, by total greenhouse gas emissions
Developed country
Developing country
PART OF PARIS AGREEMENT
NOT PART OF AGREEMENT
196 parties
1 country
194 countries + E.U. + Palestinian Authority
United States
China
6.3M
12.5M
kilotons of CO2-equivalent
total greenhouse
gas emissions
President Trump plans to back out of the Paris Agreement, which puts the U.S. into this group
India
Brazil
Russia
3M
3M
2.8M
Dem. Rep.
Congo
Indonesia
Canada
Germany
Japan
Australia
780K
800K
1M
950K
1.5M
760K
Central
African Rep.
Iran
South
Korea
U.K.
Bolivia
Mexico
Burma
520K
650K
590K
620K
660K
530K
as of 2007
670K
Saudi
Arabia
South
Africa
Thailand
Italy
Poland
Turkey
Sudan
France
510K
440K
500K
480K
410K
450K
490K
500K
Other 170 parties that are part of agreement
11M
Note: The Vatican is not officially part of the Paris agreement, but Pope Francis has publicly supported it. Some of these parties are part of the agreement but have not formally ratified it. They are already complying and moving toward ratification. Emissions data is from the World Bank as of 2012, the latest available year, unless otherwise noted. Data is not available for some countries after 2000.
The U.S.’s withdrawal is especially striking because developing countries, most of which are in the agreement, have a much harder time cutting emissions.
That’s because “the richest countries have much of their economy in lower-emitting sectors” — think finance and technology rather than manufacturing — and fewer people are deprived of access to energy, according to Robert Lempert, an environmental policy researcher at RAND Corporation. “The U.S. can grow their economy and improve their quality of life without increasing energy use. But in developing countries, you can’t do that.”
NATIONALLY DETERMINED
CONTRIBUTIONS, AS SUBMITTED
TO THE U.N.
Developed country
Developing country
15M kilotons of CO2 equivalent
total greenhouse gas emissions
China
Projected emissions for the U.S. if it were to carry on business as usual.
10M
U.S.
5M
E.U.
India
0
1970
2012
2030
China and India have set goals based on emissions per GDP unit. This means that their projected total emissions goals may change based on actual GDP growth.
China
Reduce emissions per GDP unit by 60 to 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030
India
Reduce emissions per GDP unit by 33 to 35 percent from 2005 levels by 2030
United States
Reduce emissions by 26 to 28 percent from 2005 levels by 2025
European Union
Reduce emissions by at least 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2030
NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS, AS SUBMITTED TO THE U.N.
Developed country
Developing country
15M kilotons of CO2-equivalent total greenhouse gas emissions
China
12.5M
China and India have set goals based on emissions per GDP unit. This means that their projected total emissions goals may change based on actual GDP growth.
Projected emissions for the U.S. if it were to carry on business as usual.
10M
7.5M
U.S.
5M
E.U.
2.5M
India
0
1970
2012
2025
2030
China
Reduce emissions per GDP unit by 60 to 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030
India
Reduce emissions per GDP unit by 33 to 35 percent from 2005 levels by 2030
United States
Reduce emissions by 26 to 28 percent from 2005 levels by 2025
European Union
Reduce emissions by at least 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2030
NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS,
AS SUBMITTED TO THE U.N.
15M kilotons of CO2 equivalent total greenhouse gas emissions
Developed country
Developing country
China
China
12.5M
Reduce emissions per GDP unit by 60 to 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030
China and India have set goals based on emissions per GDP unit. This means that their projected total emissions goals may change based on actual GDP growth.
Projected emissions for the U.S. if it were to carry on business as usual.
10M
India
7.5M
Reduce emissions per GDP unit by 33 to 35 percent from 2005 levels by 2030
U.S.
United States
5M
Reduce emissions by 26 to 28 percent from 2005 levels by 2025
E.U.
European Union
2.5M
Reduce emissions by at least 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2030
India
0
1970
2012
2025
2030
But numerous developing countries nonetheless participate because the Paris agreement has such a decentralized structure. Each country sets its own climate goals, and there’s no legal consequence for missing that goal.
That structure also means the U.S. withdrawal likely won’t spell the end of the agreement — countries have little incentive to leave. China and the European Union, among others, have already reaffirmed their commitments in light of Trump’s comments.
Rather, withdrawal “is going to damage the U.S. much more than it’s going to damage the Paris agreement itself,” said Nat Keohane, vice president for global climate at the Environmental Defense Fund.
What is that damage? “It provides an opportunity for China to exert itself on the global stage” after the U.S. leaves a “leadership vacuum,” said Ann Carlson, an environmental law professor at UCLA. That’s with regards to the climate — the U.S. will lose its seat at the negotiating table to set global emissions monitoring standards — and also diplomacy. Experts on both sides agree leaving the international consensus on climate change will harm the country’s reputation.
“Pulling out of the Paris agreement would be an unforced error in the sense of undermining our diplomatic efforts going forward,” Keohane said. “For the rest of the world this is a central issue for foreign policy.”
People who support leaving the agreement, though, don’t see it this way. “There’s so much fluidity in international politics” that the diplomatic hit would be temporary, said Pat Michaels of the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute.
That said, experts from both sides agree that staying in the Paris agreement alone isn’t enough to keep the U.S. in a role of global environmental leadership. Even if the U.S. remained in the agreement but ignored it by crafting domestic policies that hurt the environment, it would face the same harms.
“Every move the Trump administration has made signals loudly and clearly that the U.S. is not going to address greenhouse gas emissions in any meaningful way,” Carlson said. “Putting aside Paris, we’ve already done that.”
THREE OPTIONS FOR ABANDONING THE AGREEMENT’S EMISSIONS STANDARDS:
They vary with how difficult it would be for a future administration to reverse the decision and begin participating again.
EASIER TO REVERSE
Loosen or intentionally miss emissions target:
The emissions targets are set by each country and aren’t legally binding. The U.S. could miss its target without consequence. And it’s possible, but debated by analysts, that the U.S. could switch to an easier target.
Withdraw from the Paris climate agreement:
The U.S. could withdraw from the climate agreement as early as November 2020, though there may be political pressure to get Senate approval.
Withdraw from the UNFCCC:
With one year’s notice the U.S. could completely withdraw from the U.N.’s climate change treaty. They would need a two-thirds vote in the Senate to re-join, most likely requiring bipartisan support.
HARDER TO REVERSE
THREE OPTIONS FOR ABANDONING THE AGREEMENT’S EMISSIONS STANDARDS:
They vary with how difficult it would be for a future administration to reverse the decision and begin participating again.
HARDER TO REVERSE
EASIER TO REVERSE
Loosen or intentionally miss emissions target:
Withdraw from the Paris climate agreement:
Withdraw from the UNFCCC:
The emissions targets are set by each country and aren’t legally binding. The U.S. could miss its target without consequence. And it’s possible, but debated by analysts, that the U.S. could switch to an easier target.
The U.S. could withdraw from the climate agreement as early as November 2020, though there may be political pressure to get Senate approval.
With one year’s notice the U.S. could completely withdraw from the U.N.’s climate change treaty. They would need a two-thirds vote in the Senate to re-join, most likely requiring bipartisan support.
There are several paths for the U.S. to exit the agreement. But regardless how it happens, returning to a role of global environmental leadership under the next administration is possible, and some experts believe, necessary.
Referring to a U.S. withdrawal from the agreement, Keohane said, “If this ends up as a four-year blip on a long-run downward [emissions] trajectory, then the climate can survive it. But the climate won’t be able to survive the long-run absence of U.S. leadership.”
About this story
Originally published May 16, 2017. Sources: Paris agreement parties from United Nations, total greenhouse gas emissions from World Bank, NDC data from United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, projected GDP from OECD, projected U.S. emissions from the State Department via UNFCCC.
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