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D.C.-area forecast: Gusty showers and storms this afternoon, some could be intense

February 25, 2017 at 12:00 p.m. EST

12:00 p.m. update: With highs in the 70s for a third straight day, sunshine has dimmed as we head into afternoon. A cold front approaches from the west with a growing risk for showers and storms. While radar is pretty quiet so far, that may begin to change soon.

The most recent high resolution models continue to bring a broken line of showers and storms through the area between about 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. Given that the predicted storms have not yet formed, and should be doing so in the next hour or so, there is some additional uncertainty as to the evolution of activity today. Models suggested we’d have more to track at this point. That said, the ingredients are available and there is also some indication that showers and storms will begin to erupt shortly.

8:30 a.m. update: The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center upgraded the severe storm threat for the area from marginal risk to slight risk overnight. This is the second-lowest risk category out of five that they issue.

The timeline for storms is still generally the same as has been forecast. A broken line of showers and storms should cross the Blue Ridge early this afternoon and then rapidly progress east. The latest short-term modeling suggests the worst of this line of activity should affect the western half of the area from 1 to 2 p.m., the immediate area from 2 to 3 p.m. and the eastern suburbs from 3 to 4 p.m. Hazards may include damaging winds, some hail and even a tornado. Some additional showers may linger after it passes, but the activity should be out of here by sunset.

From 5:00 a.m… 

TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

6/10: A decent (weirdly warm) start gives way to a turbulent PM. First a gusty storm threat, then cooler winds.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Variably cloudy, PM storm chance, turning cooler and windy. Highs: 66 to 74.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows: 28 to 38.
Tomorrow: Mostly clear. Breezy. Highs: 46 to 51.

View the current conditions at The Washington Post headquarters.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

After days of absurd warmth in what has become a creepily warm February, the winds of change arrive today. A cold front that blasts into this springtime air mass should set off showers and storms. And behind the front, a rush of much cooler air comes into the area. This air is cool enough to get us back close to normal for this time of year, at least for a day or so.

Today (Saturday): We should see limited sunshine in the morning as a cold front approaches from the west. Clouds thicken with time, though. By midday, a broken line of showers and storms should start to crest the Blue Ridge and push into the area. This line — possibly broken, but also potentially filling in and intensifying as it moves through — passes by during the afternoon. Our best guess as of now is somewhere in the 12 p.m. to 5 p.m. range, arriving earliest west and lingering latest east. Check back in with us for an update later this morning on that timing.

If you’re out, definitely keep apprised of the weather until the front passes. It’s particularly important to pay attention if you are on the water basking in the last of this recent warmth. Water temperatures are still dangerously cold and winds may come up suddenly. The whole area goes from warm and springlike to stormy and turning chilly. There’s also a risk of some severe wind gusts, hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado with the showers and storms. Additionally, a widespread strong wind threat is present, both with and behind the front. Highs should head for and past 70 before tumbling back 20 degrees or so in the hour to two following the front. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Any showers should be ending by evening. Temperatures are in the 50s near sunset and still falling. Add in a gusty northwest wind and it might come as a bit of a shock, although it’s nothing notable for late February as far as chilly temperatures go. By late evening, we’re all in the 40s — at least — with places north and west falling into the 30s. Bottom line: Prepare to be colder than you’ve been. Lows end up making the upper 20s in the coldest spots to the upper 30s in the warmest. Winds are from the northwest around 15 to 20 mph early and diminishing to 10 mph or less late night. Confidence: Medium-High

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram for the latest updates. For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Sunday): Welcome back to late winter. A sunny and tame version at least. If you don’t like cold, the good news is we’re well past the coldest days. In fact, this is the beginning of 50s season as the average high reaches that level. As such, we’re treated to a relatively typical end-of-February day with highs ranging from the mid-50s to near 60. Winds are from the northwest around 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Skies remain mainly clear and winds diminish. That’s a recipe for efficient cooling of the lower atmosphere. So most spots head near and below freezing. The range is upper 20s to low and mid-30s in most spots, which might be mid- to upper 30s in the city. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

There’s still no significant cold air around for now, so temperatures turn milder again Monday. It’s not the super warm stuff we just went through, but it’s also only the start of at least a few days of warming. Highs are mainly in the mid-50s. Skies that start out very sunny may turn cloudier by sunset. A slight chance of showers moves in overnight with temperatures in the 40s. Confidence: Medium

Showers are a risk throughout Tuesday, perhaps focused on the morning, as a little wave of low pressure works by the region. Despite clouds and showers it’s a pretty mild air mass, so highs should near 60. If it’s on the dry side or rain ends early and we see some sun, highs may rise farther into the 60s. Confidence: Medium