RICHMOND — A Republican who worked in President George W. Bush's White House is favored to win next year's GOP nomination for Virginia governor, while the candidate most closely aligned with Donald Trump is lagging, a new University of Mary Washington poll found.
Gillespie’s closest competitor is the latest entrant to the GOP race: state Sen. Frank W. Wagner (Virginia Beach), who announced his candidacy in late August and drew the support of 11 percent in the poll. U.S. Rep. Rob Wittman had 8 percent.
None of the contenders are well known across the state. Gillespie, who was a counselor to Bush, has the highest profile after narrowly losing a 2014 bid to unseat Sen. Mark R. Warner (D), a former governor. But even his name recognition remains modest.
The poll, conducted Sept. 6 to 12 for the university by Princeton Survey Research Associates, found that 40 percent of Virginians have no preferred candidate. It surveyed 1,006 adults via landlines and cellphones and has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points for results based on registered voters and 4.4 percentage points for results based on likely voters.
“Gillespie ran a statewide race two years ago, so right now he is somewhat better known around the state,” said Stephen J. Farnsworth, a Mary Washington political-science professor and director of the university’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies, which sponsored the survey. “But the challenge for Gillespie and for the other three Republican candidates is to become better known across the commonwealth before next year’s primary.”
The Republicans are vying for the chance to succeed the term-limited Terry McAuliffe (D), who leaves the governor’s office in January 2018. On the Democrats’ side, only Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam is in the race.
Although Northam already holds statewide office, it is a relatively obscure one whose only constitutionally mandated role is to preside over the state Senate.
Six percent of those surveyed said they had a positive opinion of Northam, a pediatric neurologist and former state senator from the Eastern Shore. Four percent have a negative one, and 86 percent said they did not know enough about Northam to express an opinion.
By comparison, 16 percent said they had a favorable opinion of Gillespie, 10 percent had an unfavorable opinion and 71 percent said that they had not heard enough about him to offer an opinion.
Nine percent had a favorable opinion of Wittman, whose District stretches from Prince William County to Hampton Roads. Four percent had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 84 percent did not know enough to offer an opinion.
Eight percent had a favorable opinion of Wagner, with 5 percent saying they had an unfavorable view. Seven percent had a favorable opinion of Stewart, compared with 4 percent who had an unfavorable view. More than 80 percent did not know enough about either candidate to express an opinion.
All four hypothetical general-election matchups between Northam and the four Republican candidates were within the survey’s margin of error. No candidate in any of the head-to-head contests received more than 40 percent or less than 35 percent.
