Why some dictators are more likely to get nuclear weapons. 5 lessons from Iraq and Libya.

Analysis by Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer

October 10, 2016 at 11:00 a.m. EDT

U.N. safety inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency check the extent of contamination at the nuclear facility in Tuwaitha, south of Baghdad, in 2003. (Bullit Marquez/AP)

Many dictators have sought nuclear weapons; some succeeded, some came close, others failed spectacularly. A careful examination of two such regimes illuminates why. Today, many dictatorships are becoming personalist, in which leaders dominate decision-making at the expense of formal state institutions. According to recent research, personalist dictators are more likely to pursue nuclear weapons and are less likely to get them, but they can become increasingly dangerous and unrestrained if they succeed.