Democrat Doug Jones pulled off a nail-biting win in Alabama’s Senate special election, skating by with 50 percent of the vote to Roy Moore’s 48. That represents a monumental victory for the Democrats in a deep-red state where Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump by 28 points.

Jones’s win comes thanks to a significant, nearly uniform surge of Democratic votes statewide. But he also owes the victory in large part to Moore’s unpopularity — the Republican seriously underperformed in statewide elections even before he faced accusations of sexual assault and misconduct against teenage girls.

Lost

(voted more

democratic)

Gained

(voted more

republican)

In percentage

points

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Flipped county

Each dot represents

500 people

Comparing Moore in 2012

to Moore in 2017

In 2012, Moore won a state Supreme Court seat. In 2017 he outperformed his margins in 32 counties, but in 35 others he did worse.

Huntsville

Decatur

NORTH AND

CENTRAL

Gadsden

Birmingham

Tuscaloosa

Auburn

Selma

Montgomery

BLACK BELT

SOUTH

Dothan

Mobile

Comparing Trump in 2016

to Moore in 2017

Every single county swung left compared to 2016, with some moving more than 15 points. Moore lost 12 counties that Trump won.

Huntsville

Decatur

NORTH AND CENTRAL

Gadsden

Birmingham

Tuscaloosa

Auburn

Selma

Montgomery

BLACK BELT

SOUTH

Dothan

Mobile

Gained

(voted more republican)

Each dot represents

500 people

Lost

(voted more democratic)

In percentage

points

Flipped county

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Comparing Moore in 2012

to Moore in 2017

Comparing Trump in 2016

to Moore in 2017

In 2012, Moore won a state Supreme Court seat. In 2017 he outperformed his margins in 32 counties, but in 35 others he did worse.

Every single county swung left compared to 2016, with some moving more than 15 points. Moore lost 12 counties that Trump won.

Moore lost support in the ring of mostly white counties east of Birmingham.

Huntsville

Huntsville

NORTH AND

CENTRAL

NORTH AND

CENTRAL

Birmingham

Birmingham

Tuscaloosa

Tuscaloosa

Selma

Selma

Montgomery

Montgomery

BLACK BELT

BLACK BELT

SOUTH

SOUTH

Moore’s vote share increased in the mostly rural white region.

The Black Belt had strong turnout and support for Jones, who won a bigger margin there than Clinton did last year.

Mobile

Gained

(voted more republican)

Each dot represents

500 people

Lost

(voted more democratic)

In percentage

points

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Flipped county

Comparing Moore in 2012

to Moore in 2017

Comparing Trump in 2016

to Moore in 2017

In 2012, Moore won a state Supreme Court seat. In 2017 he outperformed his margins in 32 counties, but in 35 others he did worse.

Every single county swung left compared to 2016, with some moving more than 15 points. Moore lost 12 counties that Trump won.

Moore’s vote share increased in the mostly rural white region.

Huntsville

Huntsville

Moore lost support in the ring of mostly white counties east of Birmingham.

Decatur

Decatur

NORTH AND CENTRAL

NORTH AND

CENTRAL

Gadsden

Gadsden

Birmingham

Birmingham

Hoover

Hoover

Tuscaloosa

Tuscaloosa

Auburn

Auburn

The Black Belt had strong turnout and support for Jones, who won a bigger margin there than Clinton did last year.

Selma

Selma

Montgomery

Montgomery

BLACK BELT

BLACK BELT

SOUTH

SOUTH

Dothan

Dothan

Mobile

Mobile

Moore underperformed Trump’s results by 14 percentage points in the north and central region, by nine points in the Black Belt and by 11 points in southern Alabama.

Typically reliable and sizable Republican wins in the rural north and south of the state evaporated into razor thin margins. Between that and an increased margin in the Black Belt, Jones was able to eke out a 21,000-vote victory, while Republicans normally win by more than half a million votes.

Vote margin by region

Statewide

McCain v. Obama

’12 Pres.

Romney v. Obama

’16 Pres.

Trump v. Clinton

’16 Sen.

Shelby v. Crumpton

21K

’17 Sen.

Moore v. Jones

Northern and Central

’12 Pres.

’16 Pres.

’16 Sen.

18 K

’17 Sen.

The Black Belt

’12 Pres.

’16 Pres.

’16 Sen.

’17 Sen.

65K

Southern

’12 Pres.

’16 Pres.

’16 Sen.

’17 Sen.

26K

Vote margin by region

2008

2012

2016

2016

2017

pres.

PRES.

pres.

SEN.

SEN.

McCain v.

Obama

Romney v.

Obama

Trump v.

Clinton

Shelby v.

Crumpton

Moore v.

Jones

Statewide

21K

Northern

and Central

18K

The Black Belt

65K

Southern

26K

Vote margin by region

2008

2012

2016

2016

2017

pres.

PRES.

pres.

SEN.

SEN.

McCain v.

Obama

Romney v.

Obama

Trump v.

Clinton

Shelby v.

Crumpton

Moore v.

Jones

Statewide

21K

Northern

and Central

18K

The Black Belt

65K

Southern

26K

These swings can be seen in counties majority white and black, Republican and Democrat. And that means it couldn’t have just been a surge in African American turnout, or just rural Trump voters staying home, or just Republicans crossing over to vote for Jones. Jones’s campaign was able to achieve a combination of the three that drove him to victory. Despite it being an off-year special election in December, Jones got 92 percent of Clinton’s vote total. Moore just got 49 percent of Trump’s.

One area that did stand apart from this near-uniform swing leftward — that separated Moore’s defeat from his previous victories — was Alabama’s urban and suburban areas. Though Moore experienced less than a four-point drop statewide, earning 52 percent of the vote in 2012 and 48 percent this election, he lost twice that in Jefferson County, home to Birmingham. And in the city’s surrounding Shelby and Tuscaloosa counties, he lost seven points apiece. In Madison County, home to Huntsville, he saw an eight-point drop, and in Lee County, home to Auburn, he lost 13 points.

Despite all these swings, the big margins were still built with the old Democratic playbook: win big in urban areas such as Birmingham and Montgomery to make up for significant losses in the rural outskirts.

Jones won big margins

in populated counties

Jones beat Moore by large margins in some of the state’s most populous counties.

More votes

for Dem.

More votes

for Rep.

R+80

points

Jefferson

(Birmingham)

Montgomery

Higher percentage

of dem. votes

Madison

(Huntsville)

0

Shelby

Higher percentage

of rep. votes

Baldwin

R+40

Cullman

D+80K

votes

D+40K

0

R+20K

Moore won the state’s less populated counties, but not by enough to gain more votes overall.

Jones won big margins in populated counties

More votes

for Democrat

More votes

for Republican

Jones beat Moore by large margins in some of the state’s most populous counties.

D+80

points

Macon

Greene

Jefferson

(Birmingham)

Dallas

Montgomery

D+40

Madison

(Huntsville)

Higher percentage

of dem. votes

Mobile

0

Higher percentage

of rep. votes

Shelby

Baldwin

Moore won the state’s less populated counties, but not by enough to gain more votes overall.

R+40

Cullman

Blount

Winston

D+80K

votes

D+60K

D+40K

D+20K

0

R+20K

And these margins, when taken together, were just enough to deliver a historic Democratic victory, a rejection of President Trump’s controversial endorsement, and a 51-49 Republican majority in the Senate.

Chiqui Esteban contributed to this report.

Correction 12/13: A previous version of the second chart showed incorrect margins of victory for McCain and Romney in the state. It has been corrected.

About this story

Election results from Alabama Secretary of State elections data website and via Associated Press.

Share

Most Read

Follow Post Graphics