McConnell on Rubio #FLSEN: "We're doing everything we can to encourage him to win."
— Rick Klein (@rickklein) May 31, 2016
But that won't stop powerful Republicans like McConnell from trying to convince Rubio otherwise before the June 24 filing deadline. As compelling as Rubio's reasons for not running are, Republicans say they have even more compelling reasons to persuade him to stay: Rubio's candidacy is their best chance to keep the seat Republican. And if Rubio's seat stays Republican, there's a better chance the Senate can stay Republican, too. And a Republican Senate could help protect the Supreme Court from tilting from conservative to liberal. And on it goes.
In other words, Senate Republicans believe there's more than just Rubio's reputation and friendships on the line. Here are five reasons they really, really want him to change his mind and run for reelection:
1. Florida's Republican field is so-so: Of the five or so major candidates running to be Rubio's successor on the Republican side, not one has managed to distinguish himself. There are two members of Congress, a lieutenant governor, a former CIA officer and a wealthy home builder all with a shot. Rubio's entrance into the race would certainly clear a lot of that field, if not all of it. But most importantly, it would probably bring in some much-needed cash by giving wary donors who had been holding their checks until the race shaped up a clear reason to start giving.
"In a state where it's likely to cost $5 million a week down the stretch, none of the current candidates have been able to raise that kind of money," said Josh Holmes, the former chief of staff to McConnell.
BUT: A very important caveat here. The lieutenant governor in the race, Carlos López-Cantera, happens to be one of Rubio's good friends. They've been working together since the '96 Bob Dole campaign, Rubio told CNN's Jake Tapper in a recent interview."I think he’s put in time and energy to it and he deserves the chance to see where he can take it," Rubio said.
(Republican optimists will point out that in the next sentence in that interview, Rubio kinda sorta left the door open for a run, circumstances notwithstanding):
TAPPER: If you didn't have a friend running, might you reconsider?RUBIO: Maybe.
2. Rubio could win: There are some polls circulating in Washington GOP circles that suggest that not only would Rubio dominate the Republican primary, he'd dominate the general election, including the likeliest Democratic candidates, Reps. Patrick Murphy and/or Alan Grayson. We at The Post haven't substantiated those polls, but I mention them to give you a sense of the kind of information Republicans are receiving — and using — to pressure Rubio into running. They think he can win and in the process Florida off the competitive Senate map. Which brings me to my next point.
3. Florida's Senate race is a headache Republicans would rather not have: Senate Republicans know they've got their work cut out for them defending 24 of the 34 seats up for reelection this cycle. Seven of those seats are in states that voted for President Obama twice. They think they've put in the work to keep the majority, even in the year of Donald Trump.
But the one hangup is Florida, which is currently third on our list of top 10 Senate races most likely to flip parties this election — behind only some very vulnerable Republican incumbents in Illinois and Wisconsin.
Republicans think Florida would become much less competitive if Rubio were in it. Without Rubio, Florida is a pure toss-up. Whether they're right, it's true that every little boost you can get in Florida helps: It tends to be more Democratic in a presidential year, but it's still a swing state where the past two governors’ races and the 2012 presidential race were all decided by one point, said Florida political analyst Susan MacManus.
"If you can take that off the table with one candidate, you do it," Holmes said.
4. As Florida goes, so goes the Senate? If Republicans can hang onto Florida, they have a better shot of being able to hang onto the Senate majority, the thinking goes. They'll simply have one less seat to defend. And it's not just any competitive seat they'd no longer have to worry about. Florida is a huge, expensive media market, and keeping it in Republican hands is going to take tens of millions. Republicans think there's only one guy who can pull in those millions — someone who just did it for his presidential race.
Florida is also going to be a battleground for the presidential race and, by proxy, a battleground for the Supreme Court. The next president will probably decide the late Justice Antonin Scalia's replacement and could decide as many as three other seats.
The presidential race usually impacts the Senate race, and not the other way around. But having a strong Republican Senate candidate running for reelection in a state where the stakes are so high probably can't hurt.
"There are not a lot of races where you can almost definitely say the Senate majority and probably the Supreme Court and maybe the White House is all happening in one state," Holmes said.
5. Rubio's a real talent: No, he didn't win the Republican presidential nomination. But Rubio got farther than most of the dozen or so governors, ex-governors, senators and ex-senators running against him did, including his former mentor, former Florida governor Jeb Bush. And —sports analogy metaphor coming — Republicans would hate to see a talented guy like that step off the field at the exact time he's needed to help bring the team together.
"You never want to see the great athlete walk away from the game before they're done," Holmes said, "and that's what we're seeing here."
Rubio told CNN's Tapper that it's a "safe assumption" he'll run for office in the future. But unfortunately for Republicans, he probably won't be running for the seat they really, really, really want him to.
