At the dawn of the new year, there are reasons to be optimistic about the state of the commute — but travelers will need to use their imaginations to find most of them.
And then there are some flat-out good things coming. But here especially, you will need to bring your imagination along for the ride.
Metro rebounds. Think that's a bold prediction? Wait till you see my even-bolder reasons: New General Manager Paul J. Wiedefeld will gain a reputation as a customer service guy by interacting with riders and — more important — making a few fixes in the short term. The new 7000 series rail cars will finally arrive in numbers sufficient to have an effect on the rail system's on-time performance. The transit staff will cope better with the stresses created by the addition of the Silver Line in 2014.
Does a "rebound" bring Metro back to the status it had with longtime riders? Almost certainly not. This prediction is for the year following one of the worst years in the transit system's history.
D.C. streetcar starts. The system has marked and celebrated every conceivable milestone except one: actual service. The streetcar start-up has made the "year ahead" list three years in a row. My prediction for 2015: "After a year of testing the vehicles along the route east of Union Station, [the District Department of Transportation] says it's on the verge of launching the service." (Inclusion of the opening in the 2016 list shows I haven't lost my nerve.)
In December, the streetcars began a dry run on a regular schedule along H Street and Benning Road in Northeast Washington, and safety officials will study the results before deciding whether to open for passengers six days a week. This long-delayed project is just 2.2 miles long, but customer reviews in 2016 will decide whether streetcars really are on track for a comeback in the nation’s capital.
Friction over HOT lanes. Blocking the tolls for Interstate 66 inside the Capital Beltway was a rallying cry for some Republican legislators in Northern Virginia during the fall campaign. But in this winter's General Assembly session, they will fail to kill the plan by the administration of Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) to create the high-occupancy toll lanes.
The administration has the one and only plan on the table that will open those inside-the-Beltway lanes to solo drivers from the outer suburbs at rush hours, when they now are HOV-only in the peak direction for commuters. The installation of the tolling system should begin this summer and continue for about a year.
Friendlier fares. Part of Metro's 2016 comeback was set in motion late in 2015 when plans were made to make fares easier on customers. Congress agreed to let the federal transit-riding benefit for commuters rise to match the driving and parking benefit. Meanwhile, the transit staff came up with proposals for new passes and asked the Metro board to approve the transit version of a get-out-of-jail-free card. That will allow Metro riders who discover a delay on the line to leave the station they just entered without being charged.
Gas prices stay low. The plunge in prices passed beyond a pleasant surprise in 2015 and in 2016 will become a long-term trend, with consequences.
Commuters don’t change their travel habits on the basis of a few fill-ups, and many other factors, such as insurance and maintenance, determine the cost of driving.
But as gas prices remain low, they could blunt the impact of Metro’s friendlier fares and also encourage more long-distance driving during the holiday breaks and summer getaway times.
The $1,000 ticket. The District government spent 2015 developing, discussing and refining a comprehensive plan called Vision Zero to eliminate traffic deaths. For 2016, all anyone can talk about is the $1,000 ticket that the planners seek to punish drivers who bust the speed limit by more than 25 mph.
It won’t happen. It’s a weak point among many enforcement, education and engineering programs in the plan that will draw much more support from travelers and D.C. residents. In 2016, envision the District increasing fines for traffic infractions, but the government hasn’t made a sufficient law-enforcement case for more than tripling the high-speed fine.
Purple Line progress. The light-rail line for the D.C. suburbs in Maryland will continue its long, sluggish path through public controversies and financial uncertainties. In other words, it will remain a typical U.S. transportation project.
A 2016 milestone will occur early this year when Maryland awards a contract to a private partner for construction, which could begin by the end of 2016.
Maglev, schmaglev. Not again. In 2015, the federal government awarded $28 million to Maryland for a study on the potential of super-fast, magnetic-levitation trains between Baltimore and the District. The estimated cost of such a line is $10 billion or more.
This solution in search of a problem will gain no traction in 2016. Meanwhile, the Virginia Department of Transportation will press Maryland to talk about a real issue that the Maryland government has largely ignored: the gooey mess of traffic at the American Legion Bridge and on the Beltway in Montgomery County.
Maryland roadways. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) made road improvements a top priority in his transportation program in 2015. But during 2016, that will display itself more in road work than in ribbon cuttings. Work will continue all year on the project that will turn the intersection of Georgia Avenue and Randolph Road in Montgomery County into an interchange. Another interchange project to ease congestion at Branch Avenue, Accokeek Road and Brandywine Road in Prince George's County could start this spring. Drivers on Route 50 in Prince George's will notice plenty of paving in 2016.
Virginia roadways
. Early this year, VDOT will wrap up two important projects for commuters: The widening of Route 7 for 1
miles in Fairfax County between Rolling Holly Drive and Reston Avenue, and the construction of an Interstate 395 HOV ramp at Seminary Road, near the Mark Center, where traffic has increased because of the federal base relocations. The I-66 widening between Haymarket and Gainesville is scheduled to be completed this fall.
